The terrorist attacks pose a serious threat to the regional peace and stability and their spread to all parts of the world is accelerating. Based on the data of terrorist attacks from 1998 through 2017 in the Global Terrorist Database (GTD), this paper quantitatively classifies the damage degrees of terrorist attacks based on the Projection Pursuit Model (PPM) and the Grey Metabolic Model (GMM), and predicts the spread trend of the global terrorist activities in the next five years. Based on the quantified damage degrees of terrorist attacks, the terrorist attacks can be divided into five levels, with the first level as the "9·11" incident in New York, USA. Terrorist activities have gradually spread from key areas to all parts of the world, but the total amount of the global terrorist attacks is in a downward trend in the next five years. The Middle East, Africa and other regions will still be the areas of a high incidence of international terrorist activities in the next five years. Africa will become a "disaster area" of terrorism, while Southeast Asia and South Asia will become new active areas of terrorism.
DENG Shicheng
,
QIN Yao
,
XU Jifang
,
GU Yiwei
. Quantitative classification of global terrorist attacks and prediction of anti-terrorist situation: Based on projection pursuit model and grey metabolic model[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2021
, 39(18)
: 111
-121
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2021.18.015
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