Abstract：According to the rock salt creep experimental data at a would-be gas storage site and their variation pattern, based on the Burgers creep model fitting, the rock salt creep parameters of the gas storage are obtained. Taking each of the creep parameters as a random variable, the influence of many random factors on the creep parameters is studied during the rock salt formation and its creep experiment process. Considering the linkages between the creep parameters, assuming a five variable overall random sample constituted by the creep parameter variables in accordance with a five variable normal distribution, the joint density function of the five variable normal distribution is obtained. Then the link between the creep parameters is revealed through the covariance matrix, and the multivariate normal distribution assumption is tested by the Q-Q test method of the χ2 statistics. It is shown that the five variable overall random sample constituted by the creep parameter variables can be very well represented by the five variable normal distribution. The results provide an insight for the probability distribution of rock salt creep parameters.
马纪伟, 王芝银. 基于多元正态分布理论的盐岩蠕变参数概率分布[J]. 科技导报, 2013, 31(36): 41-45.
MA Jiwei, WANG Zhiyin. Probability Distribution of Rock Salt Creep Parameters Based on Multivariate Normal Distribution. journal1, 2013, 31(36): 41-45.
[1] Han P H, Niels C L. Approximate reliability analysis using normal polynomial and simulation results[J]. Structural Safety, 1996, 18(4): 329-339.
[2] 严春风, 刘东燕, 张建辉, 等. 岩土工程可靠度关于强度参数分布函数概型的敏感度分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 1999, 18(1): 36-39. Yan Chunfeng, Liu Dongyan, Zhang Jianhui, et al. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 1999, 18(1): 36-39.
[3] 陈立宏, 陈祖煜, 刘金梅. 土体抗剪强度指标的概率分布类型研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2005, 26(1): 37-40. Chen Lihong, Chen Zuyu, Liu Jinmei. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2005, 26 (1): 37-45.
[4] Langejan A. Some aspects of the safety factor in soil mechanics considered as a problem of probability[C]//Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering. Quebec, USA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 1965: 500-502.
[5] Wu T H, Kraft L M. The probability of foundation safety[J]. Journal of the Soil Mechanics and Foundation Division, 1900, 93(5): 213-231.
[6] Lumb P. Safety factors and the probability distribution of soil strength[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 1970, 7(3): 225-241.
[7] 唐震, 舒继森. 基于模糊贝叶斯理论的岩土参数概率分布研究[J]. 煤炭技术, 2011, 30(10): 182-184. Tang Zheng, Shu Jisen. Coal Technology, 2011, 30(10): 182-184.
[8] 李红英, 谭跃虎, 赵辉. 某滑坡体岩土参数概率分布统计分析方法研究[J]. 地下空间与工程学报, 2012, 8(3): 659-664. Li Hongying, Tan Yuehu, Zhao Hui. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 2012, 8(3): 659-664.
[9] 宫凤强, 李夕兵, 邓建, 等. 岩土参数概率密度函数的正交多项式推断[J]. 地下空间与工程学报, 2006, 2(1): 108-111. Gong Fengqiang, Li Xibing, Deng Jian, et al. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 2006, 2(1): 108-111.
[10] 李夕兵, 宫凤强. 岩土力学参数概率分布的推断方法研究综述[J]. 长沙理工大学学报: 自然科学版, 2007, 4(1): 1-8. Li Xibing, Gong Fengqiang. Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology: Natural Science, 2007, 4(1): 1-8.
[11] 邓建, 李夕兵, 古德生. 岩石力学参数概率分布的信息熵推断[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2004, 23(13): 2177-2181. Deng Jian, Li Xibing, Gu Desheng. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2004, 23(13): 2177-2181.
[12] 宫凤强, 李夕兵, 邓建. 基于AHP先验分布融合法的岩土参数概率分布推断[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2006, 28(10): 1313-1318. Gong Fengqiang, Li Xibing, Deng Jian. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2006, 28(10): 1313-1318.
[13] 舒继森, 郭兵兵, 张俊阳, 等. 基于拟合优度指标评价的岩土参数概率分布研究[J]. 采矿与安全工程学报, 2008, 25(2): 197-201. Shu Jisen, Guo Bingbing, Zhang Junyang, et al. Journal of Mining and Safety Engineering, 2008, 25(2): 197-201.
[14] 张继周, 缪林昌. 岩土参数概率分布类型及其选择标准[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2009, 28(2): 3526-3532. Zhang Jizhou, Miao Linchang. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2009, 28(2): 3526-3532.
[15] Zhang H B, Wang Z Y, Zheng Y L, et al. Study on tri-axial creep experiment and constitutive relation of different rock salt[J]. Safety Science, 2012, 50(4): 801-805.
[16] 张华宾, 王芝银, 赵艳杰, 等. 盐岩全过程蠕变参数试验及模型参数辨识[J]. 石油学报, 2012, 33(4): 1-5. Zhang Huabin, Wang Zhiyin, Zhao Yanjie, et al. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2012, 33(4): 1-5.
[17] 王芝银, 李云鹏. 岩体流变理论及其数值模拟[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2008. Wang Zhiyin, Li Yunpeng. Rock rheological theory and numerical simulation[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2008.
[18] 高惠璇. 应用多元统计分析[M]. 北京:北京大学出版社, 2011. Gao Huixuan. Applied multivariate statistical analysis[M]. Beijing: Peking University Press, 2011.
[19] 张尧庭, 方开泰. 多元统计分析引论[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2003. Zhang Yaoting, Fang Kaitai. An introduction to multivariate analysis[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2003.
2013, Vol. 31 
