新冠肺炎疫情传播模型及防控干预措施的因果分析评估

游光荣; 游翰霖; 赵得智; 廉振宇

doi:10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.06.013

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科技导报 ›› 2020, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6) : 90-96. DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.06.013

研究论文

新冠肺炎疫情传播模型及防控干预措施的因果分析评估

作者信息 -

1. 军事科学院评估论证研究中心, 北京 100091;
2. 军事科学院研究生院, 北京 100091

作者简介:

游光荣,研究员,研究方向为军事评估、管理科学与工程,电子信箱:13910742660@163.com

Dynamic model of COVID-19 transmission and assessment of control interventions based on causal analysis

Author information -

1. Center for Assessment and Demonstration Research, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China;
2. School of Graduate, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China

摘要

利用修正后的单一群体传染病SEIR模型，对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情在国内的传播趋势进行建模，模型较好地拟合了已发生情况并预测了疫情发展；基于修正后的SEIR模型，开展反事实推理，定量评估了武汉推后采取防控干预措施对国内疫情带来的影响。结果表明：基于建模仿真和因果推断方法，可以对重大突发公共卫生事件的决策和执行进行模拟与反演，提高各级政府应对重大突发公共卫生事件的社会治理能力。

Abstract

A modified SEIR model of single-population infectious disease (SEIRD) is proposed to investigate the transmission trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Chinese Mainland, whose outbreak originated in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The SEIRD model preforms well in fitting training data and can be used to predict the future transmission trend. The counterfactual inference is applied to assess the control interventions based on SEIRD model. Using the quantitative analysis results, the effect on COVID-19 transmission can be assessed systematically under the adjustable control interventions, such as delaying the Wuhan Lockdown. Finally, the conclusions are summarized:the assessment approach combining modeling & simulation and causal inference is applicable in the bidirectional deduction study of decision-making and implementation in major public health emergencies (MPHE), which contributes to improve the social governance capabilities handling with MPHE of the governments in each level.

导出引用

游光荣, 游翰霖, 赵得智, 廉振宇. 新冠肺炎疫情传播模型及防控干预措施的因果分析评估[J]. 科技导报, 2020, 38(6): 90-96 https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.06.013

YOU Guangrong, YOU Hanlin, ZHAO Dezhi, LIAN Zhenyu. Dynamic model of COVID-19 transmission and assessment of control interventions based on causal analysis[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2020, 38(6): 90-96 https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.06.013

参考文献

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