Abstract：Coal mine safety is the top priority of the current production safety work, in order to master the mine safety production status in China, decrease the accident loss, and ensure a healthy, rapid, and sustainable development of China's coal industry, a modified empennage residual error GM (1, 1) model is built on the basis of the traditional GM (1,1) model to analyze the Death Rate Per Million Ton (DRPMT) of coal mines from the year of 2001 to 2011, and to predict the DRPMT of coal mines in the year of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The result shows that the accuracy of traditional GM (1, 1) model is quite poor with the maximum error of 14.35%. Compared with the result given by traditional GM (1, 1) model, the proposed method is easy to operate with reliable results. The average relative error is 1.14% and the maximum relative error is 3.81%, which are all better than that by using the GM (1, 1) model. The method provides the theory guidance for governments and mining enterprises to set safe production targets and policies, establish scientific and efficient security management mechanism. And the method has the great application value in practice.
王李管;裴安磊. 尾部残差修正GM(1,1)模型在煤矿百万吨死亡率预测中的应用[J]. , 2013, 31(8): 57-61.
WANG Liguan;PEI Anlei. Applications of Modified Empennage Residual Error GM(1,1) Model in the Prediction of Million Tons Death Rate of Coal Mine. , 2013, 31(8): 57-61.