Abstract：The failure risk of a certain manned spacecraft is assessed by using Meteoroid & Orbital Debris Risk Assessment System (MODRAS). The failure risk assessment results and the distribution of failure number in the surface of the manned spacecraft are obtained. The Probability of No Penetration failure (PNP) for the manned spacecraft is 96.447% when its wall thickness is 0.6cm. But the PNP is only 9.460% with wall thickness of 0.3cm. The failure probability of two sides is larger than other sides because of the directionality of orbital debris. The distribution of failure number in the surface of the manned spacecraft is in a shape of band with meteoroid impact. The risk assessment results of different shields are also obtained. The PNP can be enhanced to 99.704% using Whipple shield with same areal density for wall thickness of 0.6cm. If Stuffed Whipple (SW) shield with the same areal density is used, the PNP can be increased to 99.924%. When the Corrugated Stuffed Whipple (CSW) shield with 30° or 60° corrugated angle is used, the PNP can be increased to 99.939% and 99.995%. The failure risk is reduced significantly with shield performance enhanced.
2010, Vol. 28 
