Abstract：To prevent drought and to mitigate losses, it is very important to forecast the severe drought year. This paper tries to use statistical methods and the forecasting model of GM(1,1) to forecast the probability and trend of drought year in Zhejiang Province. It concludes that in the next 50 years, the probabilities of severe drought are 0.920 7, 0.805 1, 0.621 7, 0.409, and 0.217 7 for one to five times of occurrences, respectively. It is predicted that a severe drought in Zhejiang Province will happen likely in around 2009. Finally, some suggestions to mitigate the drought loss are presented based on the current water resource in Zhejiang Province.
2006, Vol. 24 
