针对底水油藏水平井水淹问题,研究了水平井堵水选井决策方法。考虑对水平井水淹有重要影响的地质因素和开发因素,确定了底水油藏水平井堵水选井决策指标体系。利用专家系统知识的不确定性表示方法,对各指标进行量化表征,应用模糊综合评判建立了堵水井选择的优化模型,根据变权多因素多级决策结果,筛选综合指标较高的井作为堵水井。该方法能够综合考虑影响油井水淹的各种因素,规避奇异因素的影响,使堵水井的选择结果更加科学合理。

For horizontal wells with high water cut, water shutoff operations should be conducted to improve the oil production. But not all the wells with high water cut are suitable for water shutoff. To select the most suitable horizontal well to conduct water shutoff operation, various factors related to well production should be considered. On the analysis of waterflood impact factors, geological parameters and production factors are selected, which have great impact on horizontal well waterflood in building the decision-making system for reservoir with bottom water. Expert system with uncertainty representation method was used for characterizing the filter index. In building the optimized horizontal well water shutoff decision-making model, fuzzy mathematical comprehensive evaluation technology and variable weights evaluation method is used. Using this model, the wells having greater potential to conduct water shutoff operation can be figured out. The case study shows that, in this method all the factors affecting waterflood is considered and negative effect of singular factor on well selection decision-making is avoided, which can make the water shutoff well selection more scientific and logical.