高校学生宿舍由于人员密集、可燃物多且集中、建筑结构复杂以及学生防火意识薄弱等原因,具有很大的火灾危险性,一旦失控往往会发生重大火灾事故。为了研究高校学生宿舍的火灾风险,在综合考虑高校学生宿舍火灾特点及原因的基础上建立了包括建筑物自身情况、火灾负荷、消防设施、灭火能力、安全疏散系统和消防安全管理系统6大因素的火灾风险评价指标体系,并利用灰色关联度分析法构建了高校学生宿舍火灾风险的灰色关联评价模型。此外,利用该评价模型对北京某高校男生宿舍楼进行了实例计算,评估得该宿舍楼的火灾风险等级为2级,即处于较安全状态。结果表明,在高校学生宿舍火灾风险评估中引入灰色关联分析方法,除了可以定量计算并评价得到高校学生宿舍的火灾危险性外,还可以进一步指出相关影响因素中的薄弱环节,从而提出相应的控制和改进措施,对高校学生宿舍的防火设计以及日常安全管理等都具有重要的指导意义。

There is a great fire risk in the university student dormitory because of its intensive resident rate, the large amount of combustible materials, the complex building structures and the weak fire safety awareness of students. Major accidents always happen once it is out of control. In order to investigate the fire risk of the university student dormitory, an assessment index system including the fire-proof capacities of buildings, the fire load, the fire facilities, the fire-fighting capacities, the evacuation system and the safety management is adopted based on the characters and causes of fire in the university student dormitory. A grey relational assessment model for fire of this type is built according to the grey relational theory. In addition, the fire risk of a male student dormitory in one university in Beijing is calculated with this model and the final evaluated results show that it is in level two, which means that the dormitory is in a relatively safe state. It shows that the valuable fire risk assessment results and the relevant weak links can be obtained by this scientific grey relational method. Thus, the corresponding control and improvement measures could be put forward. They are of significance to the design of the fire protection and the daily safety management for the university student dormitory.