[1] IPCC. Change, climate change 2007: The physical science basis[J]. Agenda, 2007, 6: 333.
[2] Lashof D A, Ahuja D R. Relative contributions of greenhouse gas emissions to global warming[J]. Nature, 1990, 344(6266): 529-531.
[3] Montzka S A, Dlugokencky E J, Butler J H. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change[J]. Nature, 2011, 476(7358): 43-50.
[4] Vorosmarty C J, Green P, Salisbury J, et al. Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth[J]. Science, 2000, 289(5477): 284-288.
[5] Arnell N W. Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2004, 14 (1): 31-52.
[6] Alcamo J, Flörke M, Märker M. Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2007, 52(2): 247-275.
[7] Milly P C D, Dunne K A, Vecchia A V. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate[J]. Nature, 2005, 438(7066): 347-350.
[8] Fung F, Lopez A, New M. Water availability in +2℃ and +4℃ worlds[J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2011, 369(1934): 99- 116.
[9] Hagemann S, Chen C, Clark D B, et al. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models[J]. Earth System Dynamics, 2013, 4: 129-144.
[10] 谷树忠, 胡咏君. 水安全: 内涵、问题与方略[J]. 中国水利, 2014(10): 1-3. Gu Shuzhong, Hu Yongjun. Water security: Connotations, issues and strategies[J]. China Water Resources, 2014(10): 1-3.
[11] IPCC. Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability[R/ OL]. 2014. http://www.ippcc- wg2.gov/ARS/images/uploads/WG2ARS_ SPM_FINAL.pdf.
[12] Jomelli V, Khodri M, Favier V, et al. Irregular tropical glacier retreat over the Holocene epoch driven by progressive warming[J]. Nature, 2011, 474(7350): 196-199.
[13] Trolle D, Hamilton D P, Pilditch C A, et al. Predicting the effects of climate change on trophic status of three morphologically varying lakes: Implications for lake restoration and management[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2011, 26(4): 354-370.
[14] Knutson T R, McBride J L, Chan J, et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2010, 3(3): 157-163.
[15] Li X, Cheng G, Jin H, et al. Cryospheric change in China[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2008, 62(3): 210-218.
[16] Shi Y, Huang M, Yao T, et al. Glaciers and their environments in China- The present, past and future[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2000.
[17] Liu S, Ding Y, Li J, et al. Glaciers in response to recent climate warming in western China[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 2006, 26(5): 762-771.
[18] Ding Y, Liu S, Li J, et al. The retreat of glaciers in response to recent climate warming in western China[J]. Annals of Glaciology, 2006, 43(1): 97-105.
[19] Yao T, Pu J, Lu A, et al. Recent glacial retreat and its impact on hydrological processes on the Tibetan Plateau, China, and surrounding regions[J]. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 2007, 39(4): 642- 650.
[20] Li Z X, He Y Q, Pu T, et al. Changes of climate, glaciers and runoff in China's monsoonal temperate glacier region during the last several decades[J]. Quaternary International, 2010, 218(1): 13-28.
[21] Ge Q S, Zheng J Y, Hao Z X, et al. Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: An uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2010, 37(3): 5.
[22] Gregoire L J, Payne A J, Valdes P J. Deglacial rapid sea level rises caused by ice-sheet saddle collapses[J]. Nature, 2012, 487(7406): 219- 222.
[23] Wigley T M L, Raper S C B. Thermal expansion of sea water associated with global warming[J]. Nature, 1987, 330(6144): 127-131.
[24] Straneo F, Heimbach P. North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers[J]. Nature, 2013, 504(7478): 36-43.
[25] 史正涛, 刘新有, 彭海英. 气候变化对中国水安全的挑战[J]. 云南师范 大学学报: 哲学社会科学版, 2008, 40(2): 11-16. Shi Zhengtao, Liu Xinyou, Peng Haiying. The challenge of water safety to china under the climatic changes[J]. Journal of Yunnan Normal University: Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition, 2008, 40(2): 11-16.
[26] Woodruff J D, Irish J L, Camargo S J. Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise[J]. Nature, 2013, 504(7478): 44-52.
[27] Wentz F J, Ricciardulli L, Hilburn K, et al. How much more rain will global warming bring[J]. Science, 2007, 317 (5835): 233-235.
[28] Schewe J, Heinke J, Gerten D, et al. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014, 111(9): 3245-3250.
[29] 中华人民共和国水利部. 2013年中国水资源公报[R/OL]. 2014-11- 20. http://www.mwr.gov.cn/zwzc/hygb/szygb/qgszygb/201411/t20141120 _582980.html. The Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China. 2013 China Water Resources Bulletin[R/OL]. 2014-11-20. http://www. mwr.gov.cn/zwzc/hygb/szygb/qgszygb/201411/t20141120_582980.html.
[30] 王瑗, 盛连喜, 李科, 等. 中国水资源现状分析与可持续发展对策研 究[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2008, 19(3): 10-14. Wang Yuan, Sheng Lianxi, Li Ke, et al. Analysis of present situation of water resources and countermeasures for sustainble development in China[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2008, 19 (3): 10-14.
[31] 袁喆, 严登华, 杨志勇, 等. 1961—2010年中国400 mm和800 mm等 雨量线时空变化[J]. 水科学进展, 2014, 25(4): 494-502. Yuan Zhe, Yan Denghua, Yang Zhiyong, et al. Research on temporal and spatial change of 400 mm and 800 mm rainfall contours of China in 1961—2010[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2014, 25(4): 494-502.
[32] Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J]. Nature, 2010, 467(7311): 43-51.
[33] Caruso B S. Temporal and spatial patterns of extreme low flows and effects on stream ecosystems in Otago, New Zealand[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 257(1): 115-133.
[34] Mimikou M A, Baltas E, Varanou E, et al. Regional impacts of climate change on water resources quantity and quality indicators[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2000, 234(1): 95-109.
[35] Wilhelm S, Adrian R. Impact of summer warming on the thermal characteristics of a polymictic lake and consequences for oxygen, nutrients and phytoplankton[J]. Freshwater Biology, 2008, 53(2): 226- 237.
[36] 夏星辉, 吴琼, 牟新利. 全球气候变化对地表水环境质量影响研究进 展[J]. 水科学进展, 2012, 23(1): 124-133. Xia Xinghui, Wu Qiong, Mou Xinli. Advances in impacts of climate change on surface water quality[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2012, 23 (1): 124-133.
[37] 王璞玉, 李忠勤, 周平, 等. 近期新疆哈密代表性冰川变化及对水资 源影响[J]. 水科学进展, 2014, 24(5): 518-525. Wang Puyu, Li Zhongqin, Zhou Ping, et al. Changes of representative glaciers in Xinjiang Hami and their impact to water resources[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2014, 24(5): 518-525.
[38] Bruun P. Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion[J]. Journal of the Waterways and Harbors division, 1962, 88(1): 117-132.
[39] Ferreira ó, Dias J A, Taborda R. Implications of sea- level rise for continental Portugal[J]. Journal of Coastal Research, 2008, 24(2): 317- 324.
[40] 储开凤, 汪静萍. 中国水文循环与水体研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2007, 18(3): 468-474. Chu Kaifeng, Wang Jingping. Advances in the research on hydrological cycle and water in the China[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2007, 18 (3): 468-474.