学术争鸣

谁的估计更准确?评论Nature发表的中国CO2排放重估的论文

  • 滕飞 ,
  • 朱松丽
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  • 1. 清华大学能源环境经济研究所, 北京100084;
    2. 国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所, 北京100038
滕飞,副研究员,研究方向为气候变化政策分析,电子信箱:tengfei@tsinghua.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2015-09-20

  修回日期: 2015-10-08

  网络出版日期: 2015-12-15

基金资助

北京市科技计划项目(Z111100067311053)

Which estimation is more accurate? A technical comments on Nature Paper by Liu et al on overestimation of China's emission

  • TENG Fei ,
  • ZHU Songli
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  • 1. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
    2. Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China

Received date: 2015-09-20

  Revised date: 2015-10-08

  Online published: 2015-12-15

摘要

从温室气体清单估计的方法、数据及不确定性等几个方面,对刘竹等2015 年8 月发表在Nature 上的论文“Reducedcarbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China”的主要结论及观点进行了分析,指出了该文在计算与比较中的错误,因而该文有关中国国家温室气体清单高估中国排放的结论并不成立。

本文引用格式

滕飞 , 朱松丽 . 谁的估计更准确?评论Nature发表的中国CO2排放重估的论文[J]. 科技导报, 2015 , 33(22) : 112 -116 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2015.22.019

Abstract

Liu et al report an overestimation of carbon emission from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China. We test the robustness of their findings from various aspects on methodology, data and uncertainty. We found their findings contains serious mistakes and misunderstanding on inventory methodology and energy data. Thus casting daout on their conclusion that previous studies overestimate China's carbon emission.

参考文献

[1] 国家发展和改革委员会应对气候变化司. 2005中国温室气体清单研 究[M]. 北京: 中国环境出版社, 2014.
[2] Liu Z, Guan D B, Wei W, et al. Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China[J]. Nature, 2015, 524: 335-338.
[3] Eggleston H S, Buendia L, Miwa K, et al. 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, prepared by the national greenhouse gas inventories programme[R]. 2006.
[4] IEA. CO2 emission from fuel combustion[R]. 2014.
[5] 王世昌. 中国典型褐煤的挥发分发热量分布规律分析[J]. 内蒙古电力 技术, 2011, 29(6): 9-13.
[6] 王世昌. 中国典型无烟煤挥发分发热量分布规律[J]. 华北电力技术, 2012, 1: 21-26.
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