20世纪中国长江流域3次特大洪涝均发生在厄尔尼诺次年夏季。介绍了短期气候预测的科学原理，回顾了人们对气候变化机理的探索历程，总结了汛期降水预测取得的最新进展和面临的挑战；最后分析2015年发生的超强厄尔尼诺事件给2016年中国汛期降水带来的影响。
Major floods in the Yangtze River Valley tended to occur in post-El Niño summers. A major El Niño took place in 2015 and was decaying rapidly in the equatorial Pacific. What impacts did this El Niño have on rainfall in China during the 2016 summer? This paper presents the physical basis for climate prediction, reflects the journey to understand and predict climate variability, and ends with a discussion of challenges ahead.
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