基于中国海域海流预报数据和核电厂近岸海域的高分辨率岸线及海底地形资料，建立了核电厂海域放射性后果预测与评价系统。该系统采用成熟的海流预报模型和输运扩散数值模型及直观的剂量评估方法，可对中国不同核电厂址核事故下液态放射性物质的排放进行污染物输运路径模拟，并可以在中国特定核电厂的近岸海域进行精细化3维后果评价，为应急响应行动提供决策技术支持。本文针对宁德核电厂进行了假想核事故案例计算，结果表明一般情况下模拟海域内潮流类型为半日潮流，落潮流向偏东，涨潮流向偏西，海流速度较小，扩散过程缓慢，会在近岸海域积累较高的放射性浓度。
Based on ocean current numerical forecast in China Seas, high-resolution coast line and bathymetrictopography data of nearshore area, an oceanic radiation consequence analysis system has been established for nuclear power plants. The developed system adopts models used for current forecast, radioactive effluent numerical dispersions and radiological dose assessment. The system can simulate the dispersion path of radioactive effluent in various domestic nuclear power plants, and can make sophisticated three-dimension assessment in the nearshore area of a specific nuclear power plant. The assessment result can provide technical support for decisions on emergency response action. This paper provides an assessment result on an assumed nuclear accident in the Ningde Nuclear Power Plant. The assessment result shows that in the assumed situation, the ocean current in the simulated sea area is slow and semi-diurnal, which heads eastward during falling tide, westward during rising tide. The slow ocean current causes a slow diffusion process, thus high radioactive concentration will be accumulated in the near shore area.
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