地缘环境安全受到地形、气候、资源等自然要素的制约，也受到民族、宗教、文明、意识形态、政治制度、发展水平等差异的影响。基于地缘风险系统理论，梳理了历史研究成果，确立了地缘风险评价指标体系。以最新建立的多尺度、多数据源的全球地缘环境数据库为本底，以南亚为典型区域，构建了基于机器学习算法的地缘风险智能评价模型。
A fast and accurate recognition of risk levels of geopolitical system for the typical regions of "the Belt and Road Initiative" can provide scientific support for the geopolitical strategy. The geopolitical system is not only influenced by climate and geographic environment but also hemmed by nationality, religion, civilization, ideology, political system and development level. Solutions to those problems not only depend on interdisciplinary work but also need cross-border study. Based on the geosystem theory, this paper makes a systematic study of literature, and firstly presents an evaluation index system for geopolitical risks. Then, it provides a machine learning method to evaluate the geopolitical risk levels of South Asia region based on the multiscale and multidata sources global geo-environment database. It is expected to provide a scientific support for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC).
[1] 高学平. 地缘政治风险评估方法研究[D]. 北京:外交学院国际关系研究所, 2014. Gao Xueping. Research on the assessment method of geopolitics[D]. Beijing:Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University, 2014.
[2] 宋涛, 陆大道, 梁宜, 等. 近20年国际地缘政治学的研究进展[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(4):551-563. Song Tao, Lu Dadao, Liang Yi, et al. Progress in international geopolitical research[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 71(4):551-563.
[3] Mc Dermott T, Nadolski M, Stulberg A, et al. Analysis of political and trade decisions in international gas markets:A modelbased systems engineering framework[C]//Systems Conference. Orlando:IEEE, 2016:1-8.
[4] Egger P, Winner H. Evidence on corruption as an incentive for foreign direct investment[J]. European Journal of Political Economy, 2005, 21(4):932-952.
[5] 苏畅. 中亚国家政治风险量化分析[J]. 俄罗斯东欧中亚研究, 2013(1):7. Su Chang. National political risk analysis in Central Asia[J]. Russian, Central Asian & East European Studies, 2013(1):7.
[6] 埃里克森. 中国、美国与21世纪海权[M]. 北京:海洋出版社, 2014. Erikson. China, the United States and 21st Century Sea power[M]. Beijing:The Ocean Publishing Company, 2014.
[7] Wang L, Mengchen G U, Hongqiang L I. Influence path and effect of climate change on geopolitical pattern[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012, 22(6):1117-1130.
[8] 李振福. 北极航线地缘政治安全指数研究[J]. 计算机工程与应用, 2011, 47(35):237-241. Li Zhenfu. Research on index of arctic route geopolitical safety[J]. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2011, 47(35):237-241.
[9] 姚雪峰, 张韧, 郑崇伟, 等. 气候变化对中国国家安全的影响[J]. 气象与减灾研究, 2011, 34(1):56-62. Yao Xuefeng, Zhang Ren, Zheng Chongwei, et al. Impacts of climate change on China's national security[J]. Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research, 2011, 34(1):56-62.
[10] Terrorism Database (GTD)[EB/OL].[2017-10-10]. http://www.Start.Umd.Edu/gtd/.2016.
[11] 鲁力. 巴基斯坦恐怖主义发展及其影响研究[D]. 北京:外交学院国际关系研究所, 2015. Lu Li. Study of Pakistani terrorism development and its impact[D]. Beijing:Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University, 2015.
[12] 马加力. 印度宗教问题[J]. 国际研究参考, 2002(5):29-33. Ma Jiali. Religious issues in India[J]. International Study Reference, 2002(5):29-33.
[13] 陈韫韬. 尼泊尔毒品犯罪概况[J]. 云南警官学院学报, 2011(4):53-56. Chen Yuntao. General situation about drug-related crimes in Nepal[J]. Journal of Yunnan Police Officer Academy, 2011(4):53-56.
[14] 肖建明. 孟加拉国反恐的"鸵鸟"政策[J]. 南风窗, 2016(17):76-77. Xiao Jianming. The "ostrich" policy of anti-terrorist in Bangladesh[J]. South Reviews, 2016(17):76-77.
