体系(SoS)是“系统的系统、网络的网络”,是一个典型的多网铰链、跨域联动的复杂系统,贯穿物理、赛博、认知乃至社会等多个空间。体系实验作为体系研究的工程化解决途径和方法,需要明确整体、关联、弹性、博弈等体系化思维理念。通过总结大数据分析、模型辅助、行动仿真、对抗推演等基本实验方法,提出了“人机协同多重聚焦框架”“多域网信融合体系背景”“能力指标动态实时监测”“基于基线多维比对评估”等4个体系实验工程需要关注的重点问题,展望了体系实验工程未来可能的发展方向。
As a "system of systems (SoS)" and "network of networks", SoS is a typical multi-network and cross-domain linkage complex system, involving physical, cyber, cognition and even social domains. SoS experiments are the ways and methods to solve the SoS engineering research problem. Firstly, the SoS' thinking concepts such as wholly thinking, connected thinking, relicense thinking, and gaming thinking are identified in this paper. Secondly, the basic experimental methods such as big data analysis, model assistance, action simulation, and war gaming are summarized. Thirdly, four key issues are put forward which need more attention, namely "multi-focus experimental framework for human-machine synergy", "multi-domain network communication system of systems experimental background", "dynamic real-time monitoring of system of systems capability indicators", and "baseline experimental for multidimensional comparison evaluation". Finally, the possible future development direction of SoS experimental engineering is discussed.
[1] Paschkewitz J. Prototype resilient operations testbed for expeditionary urban scenarios (PROTEUS)[EB/OL]. (2017-06-15)[2018-09-22]. https://www.darpa.mil/attachments/PROTEUS_Proposers_Day_DISTAR.
[2] 杨镜宇, 胡晓峰. 基于体系仿真试验床的新质作战能力评估[M]. 北京:军事运筹与系统工程, 2016(6):5-9.
[3] Arney C, Coronges K, Fletcher H, et al. Using rare event modeling & networking to build scenarios and forecast the future[C]//Network Science Workshop (NSW), 2013 IEEE 2nd. New York, USA:IEEE, 2013:31-36.
[4] 杨镜宇. 战争分析仿真实验系统[M]. 北京:国防大学出版社, 2014:78-89.
[5] Duong D, Brown R, Schubert J, et al. Strategic data farming of military and complex adaptive simulations for COA optimization[C]//International Data Farming Workshop. Monterey, US:IDFW, 2010:1-7.
[6] Horne G, Åkesson B, Anderson S, et al. MSG-088 data farming in support of NATO, final report[R]. Paris, France:NATO Science and Technology Office, 2014.
[7] Gary E, Horne G. Data farming and quantitative analysis of cyber defense technologies and measures[J]. Modsim, 2016(33):1-14.
[8] Shlapak D A. Military aspects of the China-Taiwan confrontation and options for US policy[EB/OL]. (2000-07-04)[2018-06-27]. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1217.pdf.
[9] David A. A question of balance political context and military aspects of the China-Taiwan dispute[EB/OL]. (2009-02-22)[2018-04-25]. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG888.pdf.