专题:气象防灾减灾

1965年以来张家口地区季节干旱变化特征分析

  • 胡雪 ,
  • 马光 ,
  • 李春强 ,
  • 车少静 ,
  • 康西言 ,
  • 刘星燕
展开
  • 1. 张家口市气象局, 张家口 075000;
    2. 河北省气象科学研究所, 石家庄 050021;
    3. 河北省气候中心, 石家庄 050021
胡雪,工程师,研究方向为气象服务,电子信箱:huxue_111@163.com

收稿日期: 2019-07-04

  修回日期: 2019-10-12

  网络出版日期: 2019-11-06

基金资助

公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)201506001)

Analysis of seasonal drought variations in Zhangjiakou since 1965

  • HU Xue ,
  • MA Guang ,
  • LI Chunqiang ,
  • CHE Shaojing ,
  • KANG Xiyan ,
  • LIU Xingyan
Expand
  • 1. Zhangjiakou Meteorological Bureau, Zhangjiakou, 075000, China;
    2. Hebei Province Meteorological Research Institute, Shijiazhuang, 050021, China;
    3. Hebei Province Climate Center, Shijiazhuang, 050021, China

Received date: 2019-07-04

  Revised date: 2019-10-12

  Online published: 2019-11-06

摘要

干旱对河北省张家口地区农业生产具有重大不利影响,典型干旱年份导致了严重的经济损失。基于张家口地区14个气象站1965—2018年的气象观测资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)和数理统计方法,分析了张家口地区季节干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明:影响农业生产显著的夏季干旱呈显著增加趋势,特别是20世纪90年代以来,干旱持续时间较长,空间范围较大;春秋季干旱出现减轻趋势,21世纪以来干旱相对偏轻;冬季干旱没有显著的变化趋势。因此,应重点加强对夏季干旱的防御管理。

本文引用格式

胡雪 , 马光 , 李春强 , 车少静 , 康西言 , 刘星燕 . 1965年以来张家口地区季节干旱变化特征分析[J]. 科技导报, 2019 , 37(20) : 40 -48 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.005

Abstract

Drought hazards have a great adverse effect on the agricultural production in Zhangjiakou. Based on the meteorological data of 14 weather stations from 1965 to 2018, the temporal-spatial characteristics of the seasonal drought variations in Zhangjiakou region are analyzed by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the statistic methods. It is shown that the summer drought sees a significant increasing trend, with a long time duration and in a large space, especially after the 1990s. But the spring and autumn drought sees a decreasing trend, and becomes weak in the 21st century. And the winter drought sees no significant variation. It is imperative to strengthen the management for the summer drought.

参考文献

[1] Mishra A K, Singh V P. A review of drought concepts[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 391(1/2):202-216.
[2] Mishra A K, Singh V P. Drought modeling-Areview[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2011, 403(1/2):157-175.
[3] Mckee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, Proceedings of 8th conference on applied meteorology[C]. Boston:American Meteorological Society, 1993:179-183.
[4] Edwards D C. Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales[D]. Fort Collins:Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, 1997.
[5] Mallya G, Vimal M, Dev N, et al. Trends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region[J]. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2016, 12:43-68.
[6] Spinoni J, Gustavo N, Jurgen V V. Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2017, 148:113-130.
[7] Stagge J H, Irrene K, Lena M T, et al. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on meteorological drought indices in Europe[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2015, 530:37-50.
[8] Ganguli P, Auroop R G. Space-time trends in US meteorological droughts[J]. Journal of Hydrology:Regional Studies, 2016, 8:235-259.
[9] Ayantobo O O, Yi L, Songbai S, et al. Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961-2013[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017, 550:549-567.
[10] 黄晚华, 杨晓光, 李茂松, 等. 基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58 a演变特征[J]. 农业工程学报, 2010, 26(7):50-59.
[11] 周扬, 李宁, 吉中会, 等. 基于SPI指数的1981-2010年内蒙古地区干旱时空分布特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(10):1694-1706.
[12] 王允, 刘普幸, 曹立国, 等. 基于SPI的近53 a宁夏干旱时空演变特征研究[J]. 水土保持通报, 2014, 34(1):296-302.
[13] 车少静, 李春强, 申双和. 基于SPI的近41年(1965-2005)河北省旱涝时空特征分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2010, 31(1):137-143.
[14] 闫峰, 王艳姣, 吴波. 近50年河北省干旱时空分布特征[J]. 地理研究, 2010, 29(3):423-430.
[15] 宗艳, 王艳君, 翟建青. 海河流域气象干旱时空特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2013, 27(12):198-202.
[16] 方宏阳, 杨志勇, 栾清华, 等. 基于SPI的京津冀地区旱涝时空变化特征分析[J]. 水利水电技术, 2014, 44(10):13-16.
[17] 刘彦平, 蔡焕杰. 基于标准化降水指数SPI的泾惠渠灌区干旱演变对冬小麦气候产量的影响[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2015, 33(5):267-272.
[18] 龚艳冰, 张继国, 刘高峰, 等. 基于SPI指数与R/S分析的曲靖市干旱特征研究[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2015, 33(3):273-277.
[19] 叶正伟. 基于SPI的江苏沿海开发地区旱涝演变特征分析——以盐城市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2014(34):479-487.
[20] Hayes M, Mark S, Nicole W, et al. The Lincoln declaration on drought indices:Universal meteorological drought index recommended[J]. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 2011, 92(4):485-488.
[21] Blauhut V, Kerstin S, James H S, et al. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts,drought indices,and vulnerability factors[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2016, 20(7):2779-2800.
[22] Bachmair S, Kohn I, Stahl K. Exploring the link between drought indicators and impacts[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2015, 15, 1381-1397.
[23] 中华人民共和国国家标准气象干旱等级GB/T20481-2017[S]. 北京:中国标准出版社, 2017.
[24] 闫涛. 张家口市2007年旱情分析[J]. 河北水利, 2008(5):38.
文章导航

/