Based on the observations of the national principal stations, the basic stations and the ordinary stations from 2005 to 2014 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center, a forest fire danger weather index model is built with the modified Brown-Davis method and the forest fire danger weather grade is established. They are verified by the corresponding daily frequency statistics of the forest and shrub fires, provided by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration (NFGA), combined with the case study and it is shown that the modified forest fire danger weather index is indicative for its values of five regions are higher in spring and autumn, as is consistent with the major fire prevention season set by the NFGA. In the three key forest fire-prevention regions of the meteorological service, namely, the northeast, the south and the southwest forest regions, the modified forest fire weather index has a high correlation with the forest fire frequency. The applied analysis of the forest fire in Inner Mongolia province in 2017 shows a high applicability of the index model.
[1] 牛若芸, 翟盘茂, 孙明华. 森林火险气象指数及其构建方法回顾[J]. 气象, 2006, 32(12):3-9. Niu Ruoyun, Zhai Panmao, Sun Minghua. Review of forest fire danger weather indexes and their calculation methods[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2006, 32(12):3-9.
[2] Deeming J E, Lancaster J W, Fosberg M A, et al. The national fire-danger rating system[R]. USA:Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 1972:165-176.
[3] Sherstyukov B G. Index of forest fire, yearbook of weather, climate and ecology of Moscow[M]. Moscow:Moscow State University Publisher, 2002:83-84.
[4] McArthur A G. Fire behavior in Eucalypt forests[R]. Sidney, Australia:Commonwealth of Australia Forest and Timber Bureau, 1967.
[5] Nobel I R, Bary G A V, Gill A M. McArthur's Fire-danger Meters Expressed as Equations[J]. Australian Journal of Ecology, 1980:201-203.
[6] Nesterov V G. Forest fire potential and methods of its determination[M]. Moscow:Goslesbumizdat Publisher House, 1949.
[7] Vidal A, Pinglo F, Durand H, et al. Evaluation of a temporal fire risk index in mediterranean forest from NOAA thermal IR[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 1994, 49(3):296-303.
[8] Stocks B J. Lawson B D, Alexander M E, et al. The canadian forest fire sanger rating system:An overview[J]. The Forestry Chronicle, 1989, 65(4):258-265.
[9] Turner J A, Lawson B D. Weather in the Canadian forest fire danger rating system:A user guide to national standards and pravtices[M]. Ottawa:Canadian Forestry Service, 1978:18-23.
[10] Carlson J D, Burgan R E, Engle D M, et al. The Oklahoma Fire Danger Model:An operational tool for Mesoscale Fire Danger Rating in Oklahoma[J]. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2002, 11(4):183-191.
[11] Roads J, Fujioka F, Chen S, et al. Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA[J]. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2005, 14(1):1-18.
[12] 孙玉成, 马洪伟, 王秀国, 等. 加拿大火险天气指标(FWI)计算的初始化方法和解释[J]. 森林防火, 2003(4):22-24. Sun Yucheng, Ma Hongwei, Wang Xiuguo, et al. Initialization method of calculation and interpretation of fire weather index (FWI) of Canada[J]. Forest Fire Prevention, 2003(4):22-24.
[13] 李兴华, 郝润全, 李云鹏. 内蒙古森林草原火险等级预报方法研究及系统开发[J]. 内蒙古气象, 2001(3):32-35. Li Xinghua, Hao Runquan, Li Yunpeng. The method study of forest and steppe fire danger grade forecast in inner mongolia and its system development[J]. Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia, 2001(3):32-35.
[14] 张映堂, 霍义强. 滇中地区中地区森林火险等级预报方法的研究[J]. 林业科学, 1995, 31(3):239-246. Zhang Yingtang, Huo Yiqiang. Forecast method of forest fire danger grade in the central area of yunnan[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 1995, 31(3):239-246.
[15] 易浩若, 纪平, 谭先林. 全国森林火险预报系统的研究与运行[J]. 林业科学, 2004(3):203-207. Yi Haoruo, Ji Ping, Qin Xianlin. Study on forest fire danger forecast system and its operation in China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2004(3):203-207.
[16] 牛若芸, 翟盘茂, 佘万明. 森林火险气象指数的应用研究[J].应用气象学报, 2007, 18(4):479-489. Niu Ruoyun, Zhai Panmao, She Wanming. Applied research on forest fire danger weather index[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2007, 18(4):479-489.
[17] 郭海峰, 禹伟. 湖南省森林火险天气等级预测模型研究[J]. 中南林业科技大学学报, 2016, 36(12):44-47, 67. Guo Haifeng, Yu Wei. Study weather grade prediction model of forest-fire risk in hunan province[J]. Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology, 2016, 36(12):44-47, 67.
[18] 杨晓丹, 赵鲁强, 宋建洋, 等. 耦合植被与T639模式的森林火险气象潜势预报[J]. 科技导报, 2018, 36(8):87-92. Yang Xiaodan, Zhao Luqiang, Song Jianyang, et al. Forest fire weather forecasting with coupled vegetation and T639 model[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2018, 36(8):87-92.
[19] 王一凯, 黄诚, 段卫虎, 等. 基于地表温度与湿度场遥感数据的火险等级预报新技术[J]. 西部林业科学, 2014, 43(6):97-103. Wang Yikai, Huang Cheng, Duan Weihu, et al. A new forecast method of forest fire risk rating based on remote sensing data of land surface temperature and humidity[J]. Journal of West China Forestry Science, 2014, 43(6):97-103.
[20] 于茜, 李静, 何龙, 等. 森林火险等级预报应用研究[J]. 科技创新与应用, 2018(27):47-48. Yu Qian, Li Jing, He Long, et al. Applied research of forest fire risk grade forecast[J]. Technology Innovation and Application, 2018(27):47-48.
[21] 中国气象局. GB/T 20481-2017, 气象干旱等级[S]. 北京:中国标准出版社, 2017. China Meteorological Administration. GB/T 20481-2017, Grades of meteorological drought[S]. Beijing:China Standards Press, 2017.
