抗击新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情，是当下中国的紧急要务，也是全世界的防控重点。作为公共卫生事件的核心构成，评判“疫情是否严重”是社会各界所要面对的首要问题。以数据为基础，分析了新型冠状病毒感染肺炎病例的确诊人数、死亡人数、治愈人数、密切接触者及医学观察人数等信息，论述了疫情的影响范围和蔓延趋势。针对疫情的严重程度，采用比较分析法，从纵向时间和横向空间两个尺度衡量疫情在不同阶段、不同地区的接触率、感染率、确诊率、治愈率和病死率的差异。通过比较研究，论证说明不同时空尺度下疫情严重程度的差异，进一步提出多尺度评估疫情严重程度的要义和建议。
Fighting the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia is an urgent task in China and a major concern in the world. As the core of public health events, the answer to the "severity of the epidemic" is the first question to be faced by all walks of life. Based on the data, this paper discusses the impact range and spread trend of the epidemic. In view of the severity of the epidemic, the difference of contact rate, infection rate, diagnosis rate, cure rate and fatality rate in different stages and regions was measured by comparative analysis. Furthermore, the significance and suggestions for multi-scale assessment of the epidemic severity are put forward.
[1] 王晶晶, 邹远强, 彭友松, 等. 基于百度指数的登革热疫情预测研究[J]. 计算机应用与软件, 2016, 33(7):42-46, 78.
[2] 白宁, 郁磊, 靳祯. 基于百度指数的人感染H7N9禽流感疫情预测[J]. 公共卫生与预防医学, 2018, 29(6):8-12.
[3] Cauchemez S, Hoze N, Cousien A, et al. How modelling can enhance the analysis of imperfect epidemic data[J]. Trends in parasitology, 2019, 35(5):369-379.
[4] 韩辉, 伍波, 宋亚京. 2019年9月刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情风险评估[J]. 口岸卫生控制, 2019, 24(5):6-9.
[5] 冯爱芬, 曹平华. 基于熵权-模糊综合评判的重大动物疫情风险评估模型[J]. 家畜生态学报, 2014, 35(8):66-69.
[6] Chen Y Y, Sun Y X, Chen J W, et al. Quantification of the severity of an outbreak in human infection control[J]. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2010, 14:3-5.
[7] 庄青叶, 王素春, 吴美丽, 等. H7N9流感疫情早期流行病学和风险分析[J]. 科学通报, 2013, 58(15):1403-1406.
[8] Ying L, Kate L, Jan C S, et al. Reviewing estimates of the basic reproduction number for dengue, Zika and chikungunya across global climate zones[J]. Environmental Research, 2020, 3(182):1-11.
[9] Fengying W, Rui X. Stability and extinction of SEIR epidemic models with generalized nonlinear incidence[J]. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 2020, 170:1-15.
[10] Smirnova A, deCamp L, Chowell G. Forecasting epidemics through nonparametric estimation of time-dependent transmission rates using the SEIR model[J]. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 2019, 81(11):4343-4365.
[11] Huo H, Yang Q, Xiang H. Dynamics of an edge-based SEIR model for sexually transmitted diseases[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2019, 17(1):669-699.
[12] 欧阳康, 张明仓. 社会科学研究方法[M]. 北京:高等教育出版社, 2001.
[13] 吴文侃, 杨汉清. 比较教育学[M]. 北京:人民教育出版社, 1999.
[14] 马克贝磊, 马丽明, 游蠡. 新加坡、香港地区的比较教育与教师教育:基于时空转换的比较[J]. 比较教育研究, 2015, 37(11):38-45, 58.
[15] 赵康. 杜威教育思想跨时空传播与吸收的历史比较研究述评(1996-2012)[J]. 比较教育研究, 2015, 37(2):68-73.
[16] 陈安, 陈宁, 倪慧荟, 等. 现代应急管理机理分析方法[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2009:45-62.
[17] 梁新蕊, 张玲娟, 郝建玲. 柏拉图分析法在护理服务满意度评价中的应用[J]. 解放军护理杂志, 2013, 30(2):60-62.
[18] 周波波, 芦小燕, 任燕萍. 应用柏拉图分析法减少门诊药房发药差错[J]. 医药导报, 2011, 30(2):270-271.
[19] 万春疆, 余海燕, 谭明伟. 柏拉图在感染性疾病科护理实习生医院感染带教中的应用[J]. 重庆医学, 2016, 45(31):4459-4461.
[20] Robert E, Siegel M D. Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) lacking in breadth of applicability[J]. The American Journal of Medicine, 2007, 120:23.
[21] 石耀霖. SARS传染扩散的动力学随机模型[J]. 科学通报, 2003, 48(13):1373-1377.
[22] 中国疾病预防控制中心新型冠状病毒肺炎应急响应机制流行病学组. 新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2020, 41(2):145-151.
[23] China Medical Treatment Expert Group for Covid-19. Clinical characteristics of Coronavirus disease 2019 in China[J]. The New England Journal of Medicine, 2020, DOI:10.1056/NEJMoa2002032.
