当前的体系贡献率研究主要集中在装备立项论证阶段，亟需加强规划计划阶段自顶向下的体系贡献率研究。从体系贡献率主导的装备全寿命周期管理思想出发，提出了包括“作战概念牵引、能力需求主导、价值定位核算、使命手段匹配、能力贡献评估”的五步评估方法，根据装备项目对体系能力差距的满足程度评估项目体系贡献率，并构建体系贡献率配比模型。将体系贡献率评估前推到规划计划阶段，能够加强装备全寿命周期管理的顶层设计和整体指导，克服当前分散式、碎片式体系贡献率研究的不足。
System-of-systems (SoS) contribution ratio evaluation is an important measure to promote the development and application of equipment system-of-systematization. At present, the research of SoS contribution ratio (SoSCR) mainly focuses on the stage of equipment project demonstration. There are some problems such as difficulty to find the combat SoS comprising the equipment system from bottom up, atypical and inaccurate SoSs, so it is urgent to strengthen the research of SoSCR from top down in the stage of program planning. Based on the thought of equipment life cycle management dominated by SoSCR, this paper puts forward a five-step evaluation method, including combat concept traction, capability demand leading, value orientation accounting, mission means matching, and capability contribution evaluation. The SoSCR of the project is evaluated according to the satisfaction degree of the equipment planning project to the SoS capability gap, and an SoSCR allocation model is constructed. In this paper, the evaluation of SoSCR is pushed forward to the program planning stage, which can strengthen the top-level design and overall guidance of equipment life cycle management, and overcome shortcomings of current research on decentralized and fragmented SOSCR.
[1] 吴坚. 面向武器装备需求论证的作战任务体系生成技术[M]. 北京:国防工业出版社, 2015.
[2] 梁家林, 熊伟. 武器装备体系贡献度评估方法综述[J]. 兵器装备工程学报, 2018, 39(4):67-71.
[3] 何舒, 杨克巍, 梁杰. 基于网络抗毁性的装备贡献度评价[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2017, 42(8):87-91.
[4] Uday P, Chandrahasa R, Marais K. System Importance Measures:Definitions and application to system-of-systems analysis[J]. Reliability Engineering System Safety, 2019, 191:106582.
[5] 罗小明, 杨娟, 何榕. 基于任务-能力-结构-演化的武器装备体系贡献度评估与示例分析[J]. 装备学院学报, 2016, 27(3):7-13.
[6] 罗小明, 朱延雷, 何榕. 基于复杂网络的武器装备体系贡献度评估分析方法[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2017, 42(2):83-87.
[7] Li J, Zhao D, Jiang J, et al. Capability oriented equipment contribution analysis in temporal combat networks[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems Man & Cybernetics Systems, 2018(99):1-9.
[8] 赵丹玲, 谭跃进, 李际超, 等. 基于作战环的武器装备体系贡献度评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2017, 39(10):2239-2247.
[9] 王维平, 李小波, 束哲, 等. 基于认知计算的体系贡献率评估方法[C]//武器装备体系研究第九届学术研讨会.合肥:国防工业出版社, 2015:1-8.
[10] 金丛镇. 基于MMF——OODA的海军装备体系贡献度评估方法研究[D]. 南京:南京理工大学, 2017.
[11] 罗小明, 朱延雷, 何榕. 基于复杂适应系统的装备作战试验体系贡献度评估[J]. 装甲兵工程学院学报, 2015(2):1-6.
[12] 叶紫晴, 屈也频. 基于规则推理的海军航空作战装备体系贡献度分析[J]. 指挥控制与仿真, 2015(5):29-33.
[13] Fiebrandt M, Wilson J. System of systems measurement framework in evaluation of joint mission effectiveness[J]. Optics & Spectroscopy, 2008(58):269-271.
[14] 罗小明, 朱延雷, 何榕. 基于SEM的武器装备作战体系贡献度评估方法[J]. 装备学院学报, 2015(5):1-6.
[15] 王楠, 杨娟, 何榕. 基于粗糙集的武器装备体系贡献度评估方法[J]. 指挥控制与仿真, 2016(1):104-107.
[16] 吕惠文, 张炜, 吕耀平. 武器装备体系贡献率的综合评估计算方法研究[J]. 军械工程学院学报, 2017, 29(2):33-38.
[17] Fiebrandt M J, Mills C, Beach T. Modeling and simulation in the analysis of a joint test and evaluation methodology[C]//Spring Simulation Multiconference. Norfolk:Society for Computer Simulation International, 2007.
[18] 杨晨光, 贾贞, 刘志. 基于联合使命线程的装备作战效能度量指标构建[J]. 指挥控制与仿真, 2019(4):86-90.
[19] Georgievski I, Aiello M. An overview of hierarchical task network planning[EB/OL]. (2014-03-28)[2001-09-20]. http://arxiv.org/abs/1403.7426.
[20] 于景元, 周晓纪. 从定性到定量综合集成方法的实现和应用[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2002, 22(10):26-32.
[21] Okoli C, Pawlowski S D. The Delphi method as a research tool:An example, design considerations and applications[J]. 2004, 42(1):15-29.
[22] Chan L K, Wu M L. A systematic approach to quality function deployment with a full illustrative example[J]. Omega, 2005, 33(2):119-139.
[23] 樊延平, 郭齐胜, 王金良. 面向任务的装备体系作战能力需求满足度分析方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2016(8):1826-1832.
