基于双层嵌入理论和知识溢出理论构建了E-TOMSDECT分析模型，对当前中国开源软件生态构建所面临的风险进行系统性剖析，并结合对全球开源软件生态构建经验的类化分析提出相关对策。分析发现，当前中国开源软件生态构建主要存在关键核心技术支撑与生态运营模式掌握薄弱、生态建设主体动力不足、在国际开源生态中主导权较弱且面临多维度安全风险、软硬件协同发展能力较弱、软件价值评估体系扭曲、生态运营专业性人才匮乏以及国际经验的利用潜能未能完全释放等风险。建议尽快聚焦新兴领域打造“三位一体”开源生态主导核心，同时加强软硬协同整体规划，构建开源软件生态的安全风险评估和应急防控机制，加大开源软件生态构建的人才培养与引进力度。
Based on the double layer embeddedness theory and the knowledge spillovers theory, the E-TOMSDECT analysis model is proposed in this paper. With this model, the risks of China's open source software ecosystem are analyzed systematically. Based on a generalization analysis of international experiences of building open source software ecosystem, some recommendations are proposed. It is shown that our problems include the lack of the key core technology and the ecosystem operation pattern, insufficiencyt motivation, security risks and weak leadership in the international open source software ecosystem, the coordination of the software and the hardware, the inadequate software value evaluation system, the lack of professional talents for ecosystem operation, and underutilization of international experiencere. The urgent tasks in China include building a three-in-one leading core on emerging fields, strengthening the coordination of the software and the hardware, building the security risk assessment and emergency response mechanism, and strengthening the talent training.
[1] 董瑞志, 李必信, 王璐璐, 等. 软件生态系统研究综述[J]. 计算机学报, 2020, 43(2):250-271.
[2] Cheng C, Li B, Li Z Y, et al. Automatic detection of public development projects in large open source ecosystems:an exploratory study on GitHub[C]//30th International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering (SEKE). 2018, doi:10.18293/SEKE2018-085.
[3] 张得光, 李兵, 何鹏, 等. 基于软件生态系统的开源社区特性研究[J]. 计算机工程, 2015, 41(11):106-113.
[4] 金芝, 周明辉, 张宇霞. 开源软件与开源软件生态:现状与趋势[J]. 科技导报, 2016, 34(14):42-48.
[5] Jansen S. Measuring the health of open source software ecosystems:Beyond the scope of project health[J]. Information and Software Technology, 2014, 56(11):15081519.
[6] Mizushima K, Ikawa Y. A structure for innovation reproduction in the Eclipse OSS ecosystem[J]. International Journal of Innovation & Sustainable Development, 2017, 6(4):420-440.
[7] De Souza C, Figueira F F, Miranda M, et al. The social side of software platform ecosystems[C]//Proceedings of the 2016 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. New York:Association for Computing Machinery, 2016:3204-3214.
[8] Koch S, Guceri-Ucar G. Motivations of application developers:Innovation, business model choice, release policy, and success[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2015, 27(3):218-238.
[9] Kilamo T, Hammouda I, Mikkonen T, et al. From proprietary to open source-Growing an open source ecosystem[J]. Journal of Systems and Software, 2012, 85(7):14671478.
[10] Liao Z F, Zhao B H, Liu S Z, et al. A prediction model of the project life-span in open source software ecosystem[J]. Mobile Networks & Applications, 2017, 24(4):110.
[11] Polanyi K. The great transformation:The political and economic origins of our time[M]. Boston:Beaeon Press, 1957:43-68.
[12] Grannovetter M. The strength of weak ties[J]. American Journal of Sociology, 1973, 78(6):1360-1380.
[13] 何海燕, 王馨格, 李宏宽. 军民深度融合下高校国防科技人才培养影响因素研究——基于双层嵌入理论和需求拉动理论的新视角[J]. 宏观经济研究, 2018(4):163175.
[14] Grannovetter M. Economic action and social structure:The problem of embeddedness[J]. American Journal of Sociology, 1985, 91(3):481-510.
[15] 刘刚, 王泽宇, 程熙鎔."朋友圈" 优势、内群体条件与互联网创业——基于整合社会认同与嵌入理论的新视角[J]. 中国工业经济, 2016(8):110-126.
[16] Mian S A, Hattab H W. How individual competencies shape the entrepreneurs social network structure evidence from the MENA region[J]. International Journal of Business and Globalization, 2013, 11(4):399-412.
[17] 傅广宛, 杨宝强. 嵌入理论视角下智库行政化现象研究[J]. 理论与改革, 2016, 1:94-97.
[18] 陈权, 缪烨明. 基于社会嵌入理论的高校课程实施过程研究[J]. 系统科学学报, 2020(3):65-69.
[19] 王馨, 秦铁辉. 基于嵌入理论的人际情报网络影响因素模型研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2009, 32(10):13-16.
[20] Marshall A. Principles of economics:An introductory volume[M]. London:Macmillan, 1948.
[21] Jacobs J. The economy of cities[M]. NewYork:Vintage, 1969.
[22] Annegret S, Catharina R B, Tobias S S, et al. The role of inter-sectoral knowledge spillovers in technological innovations:The case of lithium-ion batteries[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2019, 148(11):3244.
[23] 梁俊伟, 黄德成. 高校知识溢出与企业创新绩效[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2020(1):82-96.
[24] 李阳杰. 一流学科建设中的知识溢出:效应分析与政策建议[J]. 高等工程教育研究, 2020(1):131-136.
[25] 湛柏明, 裴婷. 中间品进口贸易的技术溢出效应研究[J]. 国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报), 2019(2):25-36.
[26] Zhao S L, Jiang Y H, Wang S Y. Innovation stages, knowledge spillover, and green economy development:moderating role of absorptive capacity and environmental regulation[J]. Environmental science and pollution research international, 2019, 26(24):25312-25325.
[27] Cybersecurity Research Center. 2019 open source security and risk analysis (OSSRA) report[R]. California:Synopsys Cybersecurity Research Center, 2019.
[28] Linux F. Linux kernel development report[R]. California:Linux Foundation, 2017.
[29] Judd C H. Review of pragmatism:A new name for some old ways of thinking[J]. Psychological Bulletin, 1908, 5(5):157-162.
[30] Apache Software Foundation. Apache software foundation annual report-FY2019[R]. Massachusetts:Apache Software Foundation, 2019.
[31] OpenStack Foundation. 2019 openstack foundation annual report[R]. California:OpenStack Foundation, 2019.
