The present article aims to demonstrate the significance, necessity and feasibility of improving population policy as well as promoting the family pattern of respecting the aged, caring for the young and intergenerational assistance. Our scientific analyses show that the policy of returning the fertility decision-making to families and encouraging the second birth would not lead to over-growth of population. On the contrary, such policy improvements would be helpful to slow down the quick shrinking of labor resources, face the serious challenges of population ageing, and so on. Our empirical analyses on the "Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey" datasets demonstrat that family pattern of three-generations living together or living nearby may not only improve the health of the elderly but also strengthen the household assistance by older parents to their children to realize the "win-win" outcome. Based on our solid scientific research, we suggest to implement the policy of returning the fertility decision-making to families and encouraging the second birth as soon as possible. We suggest to promote the family pattern of respecting the aged, caring for the young and intergenerational assistance to facilitate national development and the well-being of hundreds of millions of families.
[1] United Nations:Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World population prospects:The 2019 revision[EB/OL].[2020-12-10]. https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Probabilistic/Fertility/.
[2] 曾毅. 尽快实施城乡"普遍允许二孩" 政策既利国又惠民[J]. 人口与经济, 2015(5):115-126.
[3] Zeng Y, Feng Q, Hesketh T, et al. Survival, disabilities in activities of daily living, physical and cognitive functioning among the oldest-old in China:A cohort study[J]. Lancet, 2017, 389(10079):1619-1629.
[4] 曾毅. 尽快启动普遍二孩软着陆, 实现人口经济社会均衡发展[M]//中国人口年鉴2014. 北京:中国社会科学出版社, 2015.
[5] 国家统计局. 中华人民共和国2016年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL]. (2017-02-28). http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201702/t20170228_1467424.html.
[6] 国家统计局. 中华人民共和国2019年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL]. (2020-02-28)[2020-12-10]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202002/t20200228_17289-13.html.
[7] 梁建章, 黄文政. 中国掉入低生育率陷阱确凿无疑[EB/OL]. (2019-04-15). https://money.163.com/19/0415/16/ECQNK2OC00258J1R.html.
[8] 黄匡时. 2018年出生人口下降?国家卫健委专家这样说[EB/OL]. (2019-01-02). http://www.oeeee.com/mp/a/BAAFRD000020190102128453.html.
[9] 丁文. 论文化转型中家庭观念的变革[J]. 江苏社会科学, 2001(2):155-159.
[10] 史秉强. 代际之间责任伦理的重建[J]. 河北学刊,2007, 3(4):64-67.
[11] 郭于华. 代际关系中的公平逻辑及其变迁[J]. 中国学术, 2001, 4:47-51.
[12] Zeng Y, Wang Z. Dynamics of family households and elderly living arrangements in China, 1990-2010[J]. China Population and Development Studies, 2018, 2(2):129-157.
[13] 杨善华. 中国当代城市家庭变迁与家庭凝聚力[J]. 北京大学学报(哲社版), 2011, 48(2):150-157.
[14] 李银河. 家庭结构与家庭关系的变迁——基于兰州的调查[J]. 甘肃社会科学, 2011(1):6-12.
[15] 徐安琪. 家庭价值观的变迁特征探析[J]. 中州学刊, 2013(4):75-81.
[16] 杨丹旭. 成熟组屋区将建三代同堂单位,当局也考虑奖励多代人到新镇同住[N]. 联合早报, 2014-07-17.
[17] 梁燕君. 新加坡家庭养老模式对中国的启示[EB/OL]. (2014-01-14). https://www.fx361.com/page/2014/0211/6368053.shtml。
[18] 乔晓春. 一孩政策后果的历史审视[J]. 学海, 2016(1):52-61.
[19] 于长永, 刘二鹏, 代志明. 生育公平、人口质量与中国全面鼓励二孩政策[J]. 人口学刊, 2017, 39(3):5-20.
[20] 吴顺军, 马慧芳. 关于全面放开生育政策的探讨[J]. 新西部, 2019(4):10-11.
[21] 梁建章, 黄文政. 中国出生人口四连降毫无悬念,全面放开和鼓励生育迫在眉睫[EB/OL]. (2021-01-24). https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1688837053361896463-&wfr=spider&for=pc.
[22] 任泽平, 熊柴, 周哲. 全面二孩后反而出现生育断崖,应立即全面放开并鼓励生育[EB/OL]. (2021-02-03). https://news.ifeng.com/c/83XOUP6U7XQ.
[23] Zeng Y, Land K C, Gu D, et al. Household and living arrangement projections:The extended cohort-component method and applications to the U.S. and China[M]. New York:Springer Publisher, 2014.
[24] 曾毅. 全面放开生育政策并鼓励二孩, 促进国家发展和家庭福祉[EB/OL]. (2018-10-15). http://nsd.pku.edu.cn/sylm/gd/257979.htm.
[25] 林毅夫. 经济发展战略、老龄化与人口政策[M]//曾毅, 等. 老年人口家庭、健康与照料需求成本研究. 北京:科学出版社, 2010.
[26] 林毅夫. 经济发展战略与现行生育政策调整[M]//曾毅, 顾宝昌, 梁建章, 等. 生育政策调整与中国发展. 北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2013:1-11.
[27] 蔡昉, 王德文. 中国经济增长可持续性与劳动贡献[J]. 经济研究, 1999(10):62-68.
[28] 梁建章, 李建新. 中国人太多了吗?[M]. 北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2012.
[29] 蔡昉. 刘易斯转折点与公共政策方向的转变[J]. 中国社会科学, 2010(6):125-137.
[30] 田巍, 姚洋, 余淼杰, 等. 人口结构与国际贸易[J]. 经济研究, 2013(11):87-99.
[31] 中国疾控中心. 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情分布[DB/OL]. (2020-04-20). http://2019ncov.chinacdc.cn/2019-nCoV/.
[32] 中国疾病预防控制中心新型冠状病毒肺炎应急响应机制流行病学组. 新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志, 2020, 41(2):145-151.
[33] Worldmeters. COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic[EB/OL]. (2020-04-20). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.
[34] 曾毅. 鼓励生育二孩利国益民并有助于粮食安全[J]. 科技促进发展, 2018, 14(1):7-16.
[35] 陈英和, 姚端维, 郭向和. 儿童心理理论的发展及其影响因素的研究进展[J]. 心理发展与教育, 2001(3):56-59.
[36] Mosli R H, Kaciroti N, Corwyn R F, et al. Effect of sibling birth on BMI trajectory in the first 6 years of life[J]. Pediatrics, 2016, 137(4):2015-2456.
[37] 陈璐, 范红丽. 家庭老年照料会降低女性劳动参与率吗?——基于两阶段残差介入法的实证分析[J]. 人口研究, 2016, 40(3):71-81.
[38] Zhang Q F. The strength of sibling ties:Sibling influence on status attainment in a Chinese family[J]. Sociology, 2014, 48(1):75-91.
[39] 张理义, 仲爱芳, 孔令明, 等. 不同年代军人适应不良状况的差异:独生子女政策的影响[J]. 国际精神病学杂志, 2013, 40(2):69-73.
[40] 衣新发, 赵倩, 蔡曙山. 中国军人心理健康状况的横断历史研究:1990-2007[J]. 心理学报, 2012, 44(2):226-236.
[41] 孙燕平, 孟永霞, 韩维红, 等. 独生与非独生子女军人心理素质及性格特征的差异分析[J]. 解放军预防医学杂志, 2015, 33(6):664-665.
[42] 国家人口发展战略研究课题组. 国家人口发展战略研究总报告[M]. 北京:中国人口出版社, 2007.
[43] 曾毅. 二孩晚育软着陆方案有利于解决我国出生性别比偏高问题[J]. 社会科学, 2009(8):54-59.
[44] 沈可, 程令国. 空巢是否损害了老年健康?[J]. 世界经济文汇, 2012(2):89-103.
[45] van Gelder B M, Tijhuis M, Kalmijn S, et al. Marital status and living situation during a 5-year period are associated with a subsequent 10-year cognitive decline in older men:the FINE Study[J].The Journals of Gerontology Series B:Psychological Scieet alnces and Social Sciences, 2006, 61(4):213-219.
[46] 曾毅, 陈华帅, 王正联. 我国21世纪上半叶老年家庭照料需求成本变动趋势分析[J]. 经济研究, 2012, 47(10):134-149.
[47] 沈可, 鄢萍, 章元. 中国女性劳动参与率下降的新解释:家庭结构变迁的视角[J]. 人口研究, 2012(5):15-27.
[48] 曾毅, 胡鞍钢. 整合卫生计生服务与老龄工作, 促进亿万家庭福祉[J]. 人口与经济, 2017(4):36-42.
[49] 余淼杰. 余淼杰谈中美贸易[M]. 北京:北京大学出版社, 2018.
[50] The United Nations Population Division. The world Population Policies, 2015. Database[DB/OL].[2020-12-10]. https://esa.un.org/PopPolicy/about_database.aspx.
[51] 俄罗斯总统普京2020年国情咨文全文:苏联解体后, 我们仍然有同样的雄心壮志[EB/OL]. (2020-01-19) https://m.guancha.cn/f-putin/2020_01_19_532168.shtml? from=timeline&isappinstalled=0.
[52] 美国国家税务局. The child tax credit benefits eligible parents[EB/OL]. (2019-10-09). https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/the-child-tax-credit-benefits-eligible-parents.
[53] Jones G W, Hamid W. Singapore's pro-natalist policies:To what extent have they worked?[M]. Switzerland:Springer, 2015:33-61.
[54] Zeng Y, Linda G, Melanie S, et al. Older parents enjoy better filial piety and care from daughters than sons in China[J]. American Journal of Medical Research, 2016, 3(1):244-272.
[55] Zeng Y, Sereny M, Gu D, et al. Older parents benefit more in health outcome from daughters' than sons' emotional care in China[J]. Journal of Aging and Health. 2016, 28(8):1426-1447.
[56] 曾毅. 中国人口老化, 退休金缺口与农村养老保障[J]. 经济学(季刊), 2005, 4(3):1043-1066.
[57] 曾毅. 农村社会养老保险与计划生育综合改革一体工程——计生系统面临的历史性机遇[J]. 人口研究, 2001, 25(6):75-77.
