城市化品质、城市韧性与&ldquo;台风-暴雨&rdquo;灾害风险分析&mdash;&mdash;以7个东南沿海省市为例

罗紫元; 曾坚

doi:10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2021.15.013

科技导报 >

2021 , Vol. 39 >Issue 15: 124 - 134

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2021.15.013

研究论文

城市化品质、城市韧性与“台风-暴雨”灾害风险分析——以7个东南沿海省市为例

罗紫元 ,
曾坚

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天津大学建筑学院, 天津 300072

罗紫元,博士研究生,研究方向为韧性城市、城市防灾减灾、生态城市规划,电子信箱:ziyuan_luo@qq.com

收稿日期: 2020-09-24

修回日期: 2020-12-02

网络出版日期: 2021-09-07

基金资助

国家自然科学基金面上项目（52078330）

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Analysis on urbanization quality, urban resilience and disaster risk of typhoon rainstorm: Take 7 southeast coastal provinces and cities for example

LUO Ziyuan ,
ZENG Jian

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School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

Received date: 2020-09-24

Revised date: 2020-12-02

Online published: 2021-09-07

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摘要

基于中国7个东南沿海省市2005—2019年的面板数据，量化评价了城市化品质、城市韧性和“台风-暴雨”灾害风险，分析了城市化品质与城市韧性的耦合协调度，并对城市韧性在城市化品质对“台风-暴雨”灾害风险影响中的中介效应做出了实证分析。结果显示：7个东南沿海省市的城市化品质与城市韧性的耦合协调度存在差异，总体上经历了“先降后升”的变化。高品质城市化和高城市韧性水平对“台风-暴雨”灾害风险起到显著减弱作用，城市韧性在城市化品质与“台风-暴雨”灾害风险间发挥中介作用。但受目前城市韧性各组成部分发展不均衡的影响，经济韧性、社会韧性与生态韧性发挥部分中介效应，而基础设施韧性发挥遮掩效应。

关键词： 城市化; 城市韧性; 灾害风险; 中介效应; 城市防灾

本文引用格式

罗紫元 , 曾坚 . 城市化品质、城市韧性与“台风-暴雨”灾害风险分析——以7个东南沿海省市为例[J]. 科技导报, 2021 , 39(15) : 124 -134 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2021.15.013

Abstract

Coastal provinces and cities are faced with severe typhoon and rainstorm disaster risk. The quality of urbanization and urban resilience plays an important role in resisting the risk of Typhoon Rainstorm. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of urbanization, urban resilience and the disaster risk of Typhoon Rainstorm from the theoretical level, and puts forward the hypothesis that the urban resilience is the mediator between the urbanization quality and disaster risk of Typhoon Rainstorm. This paper measures the urbanization quality from economic development, social development, residential life, infrastructure and environment reserves, and quantifies urban resilience from economy, society, infrastructure and ecology. The urbanization quality, urban resilience and disaster risk of Typhoon Rainstorm are quantitatively evaluated, based on the Yearbook, meteorological and disaster data of the seven southeast coastal provinces and cities from 2005 to 2019. The coupling degree of urbanization quality and urban resilience is analyzed. The mediating effect of urban resilience on the impact of urbanization quality on the disaster risk of Typhoon Rainstorm is further analyzed. The results show that:Due to the differences in resources and environment, development policy and social investment, the coupling degree between the seven southeast coastal provinces and cities is different. The coupling degree decreases before increases under the influence of the policy of "development before governance". High urbanization quality and high level of urban resilience significantly reduce the disaster risk of Typhoon Rainstorm. Urban resilience performed as a mediator between the urbanization quality and disaster risk of Typhoon Rainstorm. However, the unbalanced development of various components of urban resilience caused two different mechanisms of "masking effect" and "mediating effect". Economic resilience, social resilience and ecological resilience play part of the mediating effect, while infrastructure resilience plays a masking effect. In order to give full play to the role of resilience in resisting disaster risks, the construction of resilient cities should be included in the statutory planning to form the planning basis and guarantee. Green infrastructure and grey infrastructure should be coupled to weaken the masking effect of infrastructure resilience.

Key words： urbanization; urban resilience; disaster risk; mediating effect; urban disaster prevention

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