专题:气候变化

国外气候变化与人口迁移研究

  • 卜超群 ,
  • 李晓岑
展开
  • 南京信息工程大学文化遗产科学认知与保护校外研究基地, 南京 210044
卜超群,硕士研究生,研究方向为科学技术史,电子信箱:buchaoqun666@163.com

收稿日期: 2020-12-08

  修回日期: 2021-04-03

  网络出版日期: 2021-11-08

A review of climate change and population migration in the foreign countries

  • BU Chaoqun ,
  • LI Xiaocen
Expand
  • Institute for History of Science and Technology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Received date: 2020-12-08

  Revised date: 2021-04-03

  Online published: 2021-11-08

摘要

通过对国外学术界关于气候变化与人口迁移的相关研究进行梳理发现,人口迁移不仅是气候变化应对机制,更是一系列国家背景、社会、政治和经济环境相互碰撞的复杂结果。针对气候变化问题,提出了各国应加强收集、共享与气候有关迁移的可靠数据,对移民相关政策制定应着力于改善目的地移民安置和生计问题。通过介绍气候变化和人口迁移方向现有国际研究趋势,展望了其未来的研究趋势。

本文引用格式

卜超群 , 李晓岑 . 国外气候变化与人口迁移研究[J]. 科技导报, 2021 , 39(19) : 32 -42 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2021.19.004

Abstract

Population migration caused by climate change has become one of the hot issues in the international community. This paper reviews the researches on climate change and population migration in western academic circles since the end of the 20th century. It is found that population migration is not only a response mechanism to climate change but also a complex result of a series of national background, social, political and economic environment collisions. Aiming at the problem of climate change, this paper puts forward that all countries should strengthen collection and sharing of reliable data on climate-related migration, and focus on improving resettlement and livelihood of migrants in their destinations when formulating policies related to migration. This paper introduces the current international research trends of climate change and population migration and looks forward to future research prospects to effectively solve the problem of climate migration and resolve the social risks faced by climate migrants.

参考文献

[1] Black R, Bennett S R G, Thomas S M, et al. Climate change:Migration as adaptation[J]. Nature, 2011, 478(7370):447-449.
[2] Muriuki G W, Jacobson C, Mcalpine C, et al. Migrating, staying, or moving on:Migration dynamics in the Chyulu Hills, Kenya[J]. Population Space & Place, 2011, 17(5):391-406.
[3] Massey D, Arango J, Hugo G, et al. Theories of international migration:A review and appraisal[J]. Population and Development Review, 1993, 19(3):431-466.
[4] Meze-Hausken E. Migration caused by climate change:How vulnerable are people in dryland areas?[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2000, 5(4):379-406.
[5] Veronis L, Mcleman R. Environmental influences on African migration to Canada:Focus group findings from Ottawa-Gatineau[J]. Population and Environment, 2014, 36(2):234-251.
[6] Hugo G, Bardsley D K. Migration and environmental change in Asia[M]. Berlin:Springer Netherlands, 2014:21-48.
[7] Stark O, Bloom D E. The new economics of labor migration[J]. American Economic Review, 1985, 75(2):173-178.
[8] Nawrotzki R J, Dewaard J. Climate shocks and the timing of migration from Mexico[J]. Population and Environment, 2016, 38(1):72-100.
[9] Thiede B, Gray C, Mueller V. Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970-2011[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2016, 41:228-240.
[10] Barrios S, Bertinelli L, Strobl E. Climatic change and rural-urban migration:The case of Sub-Saharan Africa[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2016, 60(3):357-371.
[11] Afifi T, Liwenga E, Kwezi L. Rainfall-induced crop failure, food insecurity and out-migration in Same-Kilimanjaro, Tanzania[J]. Climate and Development, 2014, 6(1):53-60.
[12] Findley S E. Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983-1985 drought[J]. International Migration Review, 1994, 28(3):539-553.
[13] Mcleman R A, Ploeger S K. Soil and its influence on rural drought migration:Insights from depression-era Southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada[J]. Population and Environment, 2012, 33(4):304-332.
[14] Lonergan S. The role of environmental degradation in population displacement[J]. Environmental Change and Security Project Report, 1998, 4(4):5-15.
[15] Martin M, Billah M, Siddiqui T, et al. Climate-related migration in rural Bangladesh:A behavioural model[J]. Population and Environment, 2014, 36(1):85-110.
[16] Lom C. Pakistan-after the deluge[J]. Migration, 2010, 10:4-7.
[17] Feng S, Oppenheimer M, Schlenker W. Climate change, crop yields, and internal migration in the United States[R]. USA:NBER, 2012.
[18] Bohra-Mishra P, Oppenheimer M, Hsiang S M. Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 2014, 111(27):9780-9785.
[19] Poston D L, Zhang L, Gotcher D J, et al. The effect of climate on migration:United States, 1995-2000[J]. Social Science Research, 2009, 38(3):743-753.
[20] Dewaard J, Curtis K J, Fussell E. Population recovery in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina:Exploring the potential role of stage migration in migration systems[J]. Population and Environment, 2016, 37(4):449-463.
[21] Kubik Z, Maurel M. Weather shocks, agricultural production and migration:Evidence from Tanzania[J]. The Journal of Development Studies, 2016, 52(5):665-680.
[22] Ezra M. Demographic responses to environmental stress in the drought and famine-prone areas of Northern Ethiopia[J]. Population Space & Place, 2001, 7(4):259-279.
[23] Gray C, Mueller V. Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia[J]. World Development (Oxford), 2012, 40(1):134-145.
[24] Mersha A A, Van Laerhoven F. A gender approach to understanding the differentiated impact of barriers to adaptation:Responses to climate change in rural Ethiopia[J]. Regional Environmental Change, 2016, 16(6):1701-1713.
[25] Pratikshya B M, Michael O, Rachel L, et al. Climate variability and migration in the Philippines[J]. Population and Environment, 2017, 38(2):286-308.
[26] Amy L C. Climate change and migration in the Pacific:Options for Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands[J]. Regional Environmental Change, 2017, 17:1029-1038.
[27] Ahsan R, Kellett J, Karuppannan S. Climate induced migration:Lessons from Bangladesh[J]. Climate Change Impacts and Responses, 2014, 5(2):1-15.
[28] Wyett K. Escaping a rising tide:sea level rise and migration in Kiribati[J]. Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 2014, 1(1):171-185.
[29] Gray C, Wise E. Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration[J]. Climatic Change, 2016, 135(3-4):555-568.
[30] Bates D C. Environmental refugees? Classifying human migrations caused by environmental change[J]. Population and Environment, 2002, 23(5):465-477.
[31] Abbas A M. Climate change and forced migration from Ngala and Kala-Balge LGAs, N.E. Borno State, Nigeria[J]. Global Changes and Natural Disaster Management:Geo-information Technologies, 2017(5):141-151.
[32] Hamilton L C, Saito K, Loring P A, et al. Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska[J]. Population and Environment, 2016, 38(2):115-133.
[33] Bohra-Mishra P, Oppenheimer M, Licker R, et al. Climate variability and migration in the Philippines[J]. Popul Environ, 2017, 38(3):286-308.
[34] Weinthal E, Zawahri N, Sowers J. Securitizing water, climate, and migration in Israel, Jordan, and Syria[J]. International Environmental Agreements:Politics, Law and Economics, 2015, 15(3):293-307.
[35] Beine M, Parsons C. Climatic factors as determinants of international migration[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2015, 117(2):723-767.
[36] Black R, Adger W N, Arnell N W, et al. The effect of environmental change on human migration[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2011, 21(1):3-11.
[37] Warner K, Dun O, Stal M. Filed observations and empirical research[J]. Forced Migration Review, 2008, 31:13-15.
[38] Black R, Kniveton D, Schmidt-Verkerk K. Migration and climate change:Towards an integrated assessment of sensitivity[J]. Environmental and Planning A, 2011, 43(2):431-450.
[39] McMichael C. Climate change and migration:Food insecurity as a driver and outcome of climate change-related migration[J]. Environmental Deterioration and Human Health, 2018, 8:291-313.
[40] Haug R. Forced migration, processes of return and livelihood construction among pastoralists in northern Sudan[J]. Disasters, 2010, 26(1):70-84.
[41] Warner K, Hamza M, Oliver-Smith A, et al. Climate change, environmental degradation and migration[J]. Nat Hazards, 2010(55):689-715.
[42] Barnett J, McMichael C. The effects of climate change on the geography and timing of human mobility[J]. Population and Environment, 2018, 39(4):339-356.
[43] Jong D E, Gordon F. Expectations, gender, and norms in migration decision-making[J]. Population Studies, 2000, 54(3):307-319.
[44] Kanaiaupuni S M. Reframing the migration question:An analysis of men, women, and gender in Mexico[J]. Social Forces, 2000, 78(4):1311-1347.
[45] Halliday T. Migration, risk, and liquidity constraints in El Salvador[J]. Economic Development & Cultural Change, 2006, 54(4):893-925.
[46] Sjaastad L. The costs and returns of human migration[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1962, 70(5):80-93.
[47] Abu M, Codjoe S N A, Sward J. Climate change and internal migration intentions in the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana[J]. Population and Environment, 2014, 35(4):341-364.
[48] Mastrorillo M, Licker R, Bohra-Mishra P, et al. The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2016, 39:155-169.
[49] Gray C, Frankenberg E, Gillespie T, et al. Studying displacement after a disaster using large-scale survey methods:Sumatra after the 2004 Tsunami[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2014, 104(3):594-612.
[50] Betsill M, Bulkeley H. Looking back and thinking ahead:A decade of cities and climate change research[J]. Local Environment, 2007, 12(5):447-456.
[51] Cutter S L, Scott M M S. Revealing the vulnerability of people and places:A case study of Georgetown County, South Carolina[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2000, 90(4):713-737.
[52] Mcgranahan G, Balk D, Anderson B. The rising tide:Assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones[J]. Environment and Urbanization, 2007, 19(1):17-37.
[53] Mcleman R, Herold S, Reljic Z, et al. GIS-based modeling of drought and historical population change on the Canadian Prairies[J]. Journal of Historical Geography, 2010, 36(1):43-56.
[54] Barber J S, Murphy S A, Axinn W G, et al. Discretetime multilevel hazard analysis[J]. Sociological Methodology, 2000, 30(1):201-235.
[55] Odland J, Shumway J M. Interdependencies in the timing of migration and mobility events[J]. Papers in Regional Science, 1993, 72(3):221-237.
[56] Massey D S, Espinosa K E. What's driving Mexico-U.S. migration? A theoretical, empirical, and policy analysis[J]. American Journal of Sociology, 1997, 102(4):939-999.
[57] Smith C, Kniveton D, Wood S, et al. Predictive modelling[J]. Forced Migration Review 2008, 31:58-59.
[58] Lee E S. A theory of migration[J]. Demography, 1966, 3(1):47-57.
[59] Mcleman R, Smith B. Migration as an adaptation to climate change[J]. Climatic Change, 2006, 76(1-2):31-53.
[60] Feng S, Krueger A B, Oppenheimer M. Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010, 107(32):14257-14262.
[61] Barbieri A F, Domingue E, Queiroz B L, et al. Climate change and population migration in Brazil's Northeast:Scenarios for 2025-2050[J]. Population and Environment, 2010, 31(5):344-370.
[62] Cai R, Feng S, Oppenheimer M, et al. Climate variability and international migration:The importance of the agricultural linkage[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2016, 79:135-151.
[63] Perch-Nielsen S L, Michèle B, Imboden D. Exploring the link between climate change and migration[J]. Climatic Change, 2008, 91(3-4):375-393.
[64] Chiara F, Franco D, Alessandro O. Climate change, agriculture and migration:A survey[J]. Sustainability, 2018, 10(5):1-21.
[65] Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy J E, et al. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2004, 101(27):9971-9975.
[66] Mcmichael C, Barnett J, Mcmichael A J. An ill wind? Climate change, migration, and health[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2012, 120(5):646-654.
[67] Badjeck M C, Allison E H, Halls A S, et al. Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods[J]. Marine Policy, 2010, 34(3):375-383.
[68] McMichael C, Anthony J. Globalization, climate change, and human health[J]. New England Journal of Medicine, 2013, 368(14):1335-1343.
[69] Grace K, Davenport F, Funk C, et al. Child malnutrition and climate in Sub-Saharan Africa:An analysis of recent trends in Kenya[J]. Applied Geography, 2012, 35(1-2):405-413.
[70] Afolayan A A, Adelekan I O. The role of climatic variations on migration and human health in Africa[J]. Environmentalist, 1999, 18(4):213-218.
[71] McMichael C. Climate change-related migration and infectious disease[J]. Virulence, 2015(6):548-553.
[72] Banu S, Hu W, Guo Y, et al. Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh[J]. Environment International, 2014, 63:137-142.
[73] Katie H, Blashki G, Wiseman J, et al. Climate change and mental health:Risks, impacts and priority actions[J]. International Journal of Mental Health Systems, 2018, 12(1):28.
[74] Tschakert P. Views from the vulnerable:Understanding climatic and other stressors in the Sahel[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2007, 17(3-4):381-396.
[75] Schwerdtle P, Bowen K, Mcmichael C. The health impacts of climate-related migration[J]. BMC Medicine, 2018, 16(1):1.
[76] Harper S. Population-environment interactions:European migration, population composition and climate change[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2013, 55(4):525-541.
[77] Gruber S. Human displacement and climate change in the Asia-Pacific[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2015, 27(2):65-87.
[78] Frankel D k, Bhattachan A, Suweis S, et al. A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change:Examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13(6):1-10.
[79] Bunce M, Rosendo S, Brown K. Perceptions of climate change, multiple stressors and livelihoods on marginal African coasts[J]. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2010, 12(3):407-440.
[80] Kaenzig R, Piguet E. Migration and climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean[M]. Berlin:Springer Netherlands, 2014:155-176.
[81] Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Meisner C, et al. The impact of sea level rise on developing countries:A comparative analysis[J]. Climatic Change, 2009, 93(3-4):379-388.
[82] Saldana-Zorrilla S O, Sandberg K. Impact of climate-related disasters on human migration in Mexico:A spatial model[J]. Climatic Change, 2009, 96(1-2):97-118.
[83] Coudrain A, Francou B, Kundzewicz Z W, et al. Glacier shrinkage in the Andes and consequences for water resources[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2005, 50(6):925-932.
[84] Switzerland S, Argentina V B, Canada I B, et al. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation[R]. Geneva:IPCC, 2012.
[85] Bilsborrow R E. Rural poverty, migration, and the environment in developing countries:Three case studies[M]. Policy Research Working Paper, 1992.
[86] Leighton M. Desertification and migration[M]. London:Ashgate, 2006:45-61.
[87] SansóT B. Joint projections of temperature and precipitation change from multiple climate models:A hierarchical Bayesian approach[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society), 2009, 172(1):83-106.
[88] Pravalie R. Drylands extent and environmental issues. A global approach[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2016, 161:259-278.
[89] Neumann B, Vafeidis A T, Zimmermann J, et al. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding-a global assessment[J]. Plos One, 2015, 10(3):e0118571.
[90] Mackay A. Climate change 2007:Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability[R]. Geneva:IPCC, 2007.
[91] Nicholls R J, Mimura N. Regional issues raised by sealevel rise and their policy implications[J]. Climate Research, 1998, 11(1):5-18.
文章导航

/