The electrification of the transportation sector is an important initiative to achieve the carbon neutrality target. It is important to accurately determine the future demand for the rare earth elements (REEs) from the sector of the battery electric passenger vehicle (BEPV), to predict the recovery potential of the materials containing REEs, and to dynamically assess the relationship between the supply and the demand, for promoting the electrification of the transportation sector and ensuring the security of the supply of the REEs. In this paper, three scenarios are identified for the development of the BEPV, namely, the business as the usual scenario, the state policy scenario and the scenario of 1.5 degrees (temperature rising) scenario. By a dynamic material flow analysis, the stocks and the flows of the BEPV are calculated; the future demand, the end-of-life volume and the potential recycling of neodymium (Nd), dysprosium (Dy) and praseodymium (Pr) are predicted. It is shown that:(i) under all scenarios, the BEPV stock shows a growing trend; (ii) the current annual production capacity of Nd, Dy and Pr in China is 15219, 625 and 4509 t, while the future demand is 5700-25900, 1400-6100 and 600-2600 t. If the production capacity is not increased, the demand for Dy of BEPV can not be met, and the demand for Nd of BEPV can only be met in the short term (2020-2040); (iii) recovering the REEs from the BEPV can effectively reduce the demand for the REEs from the virgin source. Therefore, it is recommended to control the supply of the REEs according to each element's features, to increase the directive production plan target for Nd and Dy, to strengthen the technology research and development for recovering the REEs from the BEPV, and to establish an effective recycling system for solid wastes containing the REEs, such as electric vehicles and wind turbines.
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