分析了交通强国建设与”双碳”目标下中国交通运输发展的基本形势。以货物运输为对象，剖析了综合交通运输系统的结构。基于经济发展、产业结构调整、运输组织模式变革与新技术的影响，分析了2030年中国货物运输业的需求规模。结果表明，2030年中国货物运输需求规模约为20.5万亿t·km（不含远洋）。通过借鉴部分国家的发展经验，分析了碳达峰背景下中国货物运输业的减排任务。从运输规模控制、运输结构调整、运输组织模式变革以及新技术应用4个方面提出了促进中国货物运输业高质量、可持续发展的策略，包括调整产运结构、发挥铁路运输优势、优化运输方案、促进多式联运等。
As an important infrastructure to support the operation and the development of the national economy, the transport industry is facing a series of challenges for the high-quality development. This paper first analyzes the current situations of the transport systems under the construction of a transport power of China and the double carbon strategy, and the structures of the freight transport turnover and emissions from the viewpoint of the integrated transportation. Based on the historical development of the economy, the industrial restructuring, the transformation of the transport organization modes and the new technical progress, the paper then predicts the freight transport demand in 2030. The results show the freight transport turnover of China mainland in 2030 is about 20500 billion t-km, excluding the ocean transport. The task of the carbon reduction of the freight transport is advanced, with the experience of developed countries. Finally, five suggestions are put forward, concerning the control of the freight transport demand scale, the reconstruction of the freight transport structure, the transport scheme optimization, the energy systems adjustment and the application of new technologies, to promote the high-quality and sustainable development of the freight transport in China.
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