中国锂元素动态物质流及关键驱动因素分析

赵连征; 汪鹏; 汤林彬; 王鹤鸣; 岳强; 陈伟强; 杜涛

doi:10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2022.21.010

科技导报 >

2022 , Vol. 40 >Issue 21: 100 - 109

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2022.21.010

专题：初级矿产品供应安全战略

中国锂元素动态物质流及关键驱动因素分析

赵连征 ,
汪鹏 ,
汤林彬 ,
王鹤鸣 ,
岳强 ,
陈伟强 ,
杜涛

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1. 东北大学国家环境保护生态工业重点实验室, 沈阳 110819;
2. 中国科学院城市环境研究所, 中国科学院城市环境与健康重点实验室, 厦门 361021;
3. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
4. 中国科学院赣江创新研究院, 赣州 341000

赵连征，硕士研究生，研究方向为工业生态学，电子信箱： 2171828@stu.neu.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2022-06-03

修回日期: 2022-10-21

网络出版日期: 2022-11-30

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目（41871204，52070034，71904182，71961147003）；福建省科技计划对外合作项目（2020I0039）

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Dynamic material flow and key driving factors of lithium in China

ZHAO Lianzheng ,
WANG Peng ,
TANG Linbin ,
WANG Heming ,
YUE Qiang ,
CHEN Weiqiang ,
DU Tao

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1. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Eco-Industry, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China;
2. Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China;
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
4. Ganjiang Innovation Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ganzhou 341000, China

Received date: 2022-06-03

Revised date: 2022-10-21

Online published: 2022-11-30

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摘要

构建了基于全生命周期的中国锂元素物质流分析框架，核算并分析了新能源汽车驱动下的中国2000—2020年锂元素的流量、存量和供需格局的演变情况。研究显示：（1）在流量视角下，2000—2020年间，锂供给以锂矿石供应为主，一次资源（34.9万t）的使用量增幅较大，二次资源（0.8万t）的供应较小；各类锂产品的加工和使用量从传统锂工业产品和3C产品（手机、平板、笔记本电脑）驱动向新能源汽车驱动转变。（2）在存量视角下，锂产品在用存量都有不同程度的增长，其中动力电池产品的增速位列首位（20年间增长7.2万t），回收潜力较大（目前不足5%）。（3）在供需格局视角下，中国的锂矿石对外依存度较高（75%以上），并将持续保持高位，中国主要从南美发展中国家进口工业级碳酸锂，然后向日本、韩国、美国等发达国家出口电池级氢氧化锂。

关键词： 新能源汽车; 全生命周期; 锂; 动态物质流分析

本文引用格式

赵连征 , 汪鹏 , 汤林彬 , 王鹤鸣 , 岳强 , 陈伟强 , 杜涛 . 中国锂元素动态物质流及关键驱动因素分析[J]. 科技导报, 2022 , 40(21) : 100 -109 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2022.21.010

Abstract

To clarify the strategic significance of the flow, stock, and supply and demand patterns of lithium metal in new energy vehicle batteries and to guarantee the national energy transition and development of new energy vehicles, a Chinese lithium material flow analysis framework based on whole life cycle is constructed. The evolution of flow, stock, and supply and demand patterns of lithium elements driven by new energy vehicles in China from 2000 to 2020 is analyzed. The conclusions are as follows. Firstly, from the perspective of flow rate, lithium supply was dominated by lithium ore supply from 2000 to 2020;.the usage of the primary resources (349000 t) had a large increase while the supply of secondary resources (8000 t) was small; the driving force for the processing and usage of all kinds of lithium products changed from traditional lithium industrial products and 3C products (mobile phones, tablets, and laptops) to new energy vehicles. Secondly, from the perspective of stock, the stock of lithium products in use increased differently, among which the growth rate of power battery products ranked the first (an increase of 72000 t in 20 years), and the recycling potential was relatively large (less than 5% at present). Thirdly, from the perspective of the supply and demand pattern, the external dependence of lithium ore in China was relatively high (above 75%) and would remain high; China mainly imported industrial-grade lithium carbonate from developing countries in South America, and exported battery-grade lithium hydroxide to developed countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States.

Key words： new energy vehicles; life cycle; lithium; dynamic material flow analysis

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