中国“一带一路”沿线区域物流业碳排放驱动因素及达峰预测研究
1. 河北地质大学管理学院，石家庄 050031
2. 河北省矿产资源战略与管理研究基地，石家庄 050031
3. 河北体育学院社会体育系，石家庄 050031
徐超飞(通信作者)，硕士研究生，研究方向为低碳物流，电子信箱：xuchaofei_99@163.com
收稿日期: 2024-06-17
修回日期: 2024-08-12
网络出版日期: 2024-10-30
基金资助
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目（21YJC630072）；
河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究青年拔尖人才项目（BJS2023003）；
河北地质大学博士科研启动基金项目（BQ2024087）；
河北省矿产资源战略与管理研究基地科研项目（KCGL202406）
Driving factors and peak prediction of carbon emissions in the provincial logistics industry along China’s Belt and Road
1. School of Management Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China
2. Hebei Province Mineral Resources Strategy and Management Research Base, Shijiazhuang 050031, China
3. Department of Social Sports Hebei University of Physical Education, Shijiazhuang 050031, China
Received date: 2024-06-17
Revised date: 2024-08-12
Online published: 2024-10-30
首先运用碳排放系数法测算2006—2021年“一带一路”沿线区域物流业碳排放量；接着采用广义迪氏指数法对其驱动因素进行分解；最后结合蒙特卡罗模拟并设立3种情景，对2022—2035年物流业碳排放进行预测，旨在研究未来实现碳达峰情景及有效达峰路径。结果表明：（1）固定资产与物流业增加值对碳排放促增效果显著，投资碳强度和产出碳强度促降效果显著；（2）东北和西北地区在政府干预情景下可实现2030年碳达峰，“一带一路”沿线整体只有在技术突破情景下可实现碳达峰目标。基于此，要充分发挥政策干预和技术创新突破双重作用，早日实现碳达峰目标。
梁毅, 徐超飞, 高子涵, 储兆钰 . 中国“一带一路”沿线区域物流业碳排放驱动因素及达峰预测研究[J]. 科技导报, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.06.00710
To support the logistics industry’s sustainable growth, it is essential to identify the driving forces and the peak path of carbon emissions in the province’s logistics industry along the Belt and Road. Firstly, this paper uses the carbon emission coefficient method to calculate the carbon emissions of the provincial logistics industry along the Belt and Road from 2006 to 2021. Then, the generalized Divisia index method is used to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions. Finally, combined with Monte Carlo simulation, three scenarios are set up to predict the carbon emissions of the logistics industry from 2022 to 2035, aiming to study the future carbon peak scenario and effective carbon peak path of the logistics industry along the Belt and Road. The results show that: (1) Among the factors that promote the increase of carbon emission, the effect of fixed asset investment and the added value of the logistics industry is significant. Among the factors that promote carbon emission reduction, investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity have significant effects. (2) The northeast and northwest regions can achieve the 2030 carbon peak target under the government intervention scenario, and the Belt and Road can only achieve the carbon peak target under the technology breakthrough scenario. This means that to reach the carbon peak as quickly as possible, we should fully embrace both the functions of governmental intervention and technology innovation breakthrough.
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