研究论文

城市社区灾害减除能力多层次灰色评估系统

  • 吴晓涛;
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  • 1. 河南理工大学应急管理学院,河南焦作 4540002. 河南省应急管理技术研究与培训基地,河南焦作 454000

收稿日期: 2011-02-01

  修回日期: 2011-02-09

  网络出版日期: 2011-03-08

Multi-hierarchical Grey Evaluation System for Urban Community Disaster Mitigation Capability

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Received date: 2011-02-01

  Revised date: 2011-02-09

  Online published: 2011-03-08

摘要

构建了应急管理视角下的中国城市社区灾害减除能力评估体系,包括6个1级指标和25个2级指标,并综合运用层次分析法和灰色系统理论,建立了多层次灰色评估模型,用以定量评估城市社区灾害减除能力。根据建立的模型,结合河南省焦作市龙源湖社区进行实例计算表明,该社区灾害减除能力处于良好与中等之间,需要强化灾害减除在社区应急管理全过程的各项工作。综合评估模型为提升城市社区灾害减除能力评估的科学性提供了有益参考。

本文引用格式

吴晓涛; . 城市社区灾害减除能力多层次灰色评估系统[J]. 科技导报, 2011 , 29(11-07) : 69 -73 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2011.07.013

Abstract

In the recent years, emergencies happen frequently in China, therefore the research on emergency management has been paid more attention by many scholars. The emergency management process is divided into four periods which are mitigation, preparation, replying, and resuming based on classic emergency management cycle theory. The concept of "disaster mitigation capability" is systematic, comprehensive, and theoretical; as a result, deep study on it has a high theoretical value. The related literature study shows that there are few systemic researches aiming at emergency mitigation capability of urban communities. Based on the present developing process and emergency features of urban communities, building and applying the evaluation system for urban communities' disaster mitigation capability has the important theoretical and practical value to the safety of urban communities and the consistent development of society. The evaluation system builds on three parts of theories; they are emergency management theory, "the preparation community" theory, and "the resuming community" theory. The evaluation system of disaster mitigation capacity has been built based on the emergency management, including six first-level indexes and 25 second-level indexes, and the analytic hierarchy process and grey system theory is applied to build multi-hierarchical grey comprehensive evaluation model in order to quantitatively evaluate disaster mitigation capacity of urban communities. Based on the model and the computation result of the example of Longyuanhu Community of city Jiaozuo in Henan Province, it is shown that the disaster mitigation capacity of the community is between good and not bad, and the disaster deduction of emergency management in communities needs to be strengthened. The comprehensive evaluation model provides the useful consideration for improving disaster mitigation capacity in urban communities.
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