特低渗透油藏具有低孔隙度、低渗透率等特点，且存在启动压力梯度，且普遍发育微裂缝，常规产量递减规律和水驱特征曲线不能很好地反映特低渗透油藏的生产特征。本文从渗流理论出发，结合生产数据，研究了特低渗透油藏的产量递减和含水上升规律。研究表明，进行特低渗透油藏的产量递减和水驱特征曲线分析时，必须考虑启动压力的影响；并且特低渗透油藏产量递减分为两个递减阶段，用两条递减曲线拟合能得到较好效果；而用水驱特征曲线法时，对高含水已关井进行含水恢复，能够真实反映油藏含水水平，并可以进行最终采收率预测。本研究成果对特低渗透油田实施挖潜措施和调整提供决策依据和技术支持。

Low porosity, low permeability, presence of a starting pressure and development of micro-fractures are the main characteristics of ultra-low permeability reservoirs, and the conventional production decline law and the water drive characteristic curves can not correctly reflect their production features. Based on the seepage theory, combined with production data, a production decline law and water drive characteristic curves in ultra-low permeability reservoirs are obtained. It is shown that in the analysis of the production decline, water cut and water drive characteristic curves, the effect of the starting pressure must be considered. The production decline of an ultra-low permeability reservoir experiences two stages, and using two decline curves to fit the production data can achieve better results. In the analysis of the water drive characteristic curves, recovering the water cut of high water cut wells can reveal the real water cut level of the reservoir, and the ultimate recovery can be predicted more accurately. This paper can provide some guidelines for the tapping potential measures and modification for the ultra-low permeability reservoir.