为了研究启动压力梯度、压力敏感性、人工裂缝导流能力衰减对低渗透油藏压裂井产能的影响,以油藏工程数值计算方法为基础,提出了一种弹性产能变化规律分析方法。以矿场实际数据进行算例分析,并将不同产能影响因素下的预测结果进行对比分析。结果表明：井底流压越低、拟启动压力梯度越小、介质变形系数越小、裂缝导流能力衰减系数越大,初始产量越高,产量递减越快。最后,应用该产能分析方法对实际油井进行产能预测,预测结果与实际生产数据吻合较好,验证了该产能分析方法的正确性。

A new productivity analysis method for the fractured well in low-permeability reservoir is derived on the basis of reservoir engineering and numerical calculation. The starting pressure gradient, reservoir pressure sensitivity, and the conductivity attenuation of the artificial fractures are all taken into account in the well productivity analysis. A calculation instance was performed and the comprehensive analysis of the predicted result was provided to study the effect of different factors on the well productivity. The result shows that with the decrease of bottom-hole pressure, pseudo-startup pressure gradient, the deformation coefficient, and the increase of oil production in the early stage, the production declines rapidly. At the same time, with the increase of the artificial fracture conductivity attenuation coefficient, the oil production in the early stage also increases and then declines rapidly as well. At last, the productivity analysis method was applied to the field applications. There is a quite good agreement between the predicted result and the actual production data, the fact has verified the correctness of production analysis method.