针对影响空中交通管理安全风险诸多因素具有的灰色性,引入灰色理论对空中交通管理安全进行风险评价。从人为因素、设备因素、环境因素和管理因素4个方面,提出了空中交通管理安全风险评价的指标体系,采用层次分析法确定评价指标权重,建立基于灰色多层次的空中交通管理安全风险评价模型。并结合实例进行了计算,结果表明,该方法能有效地利用评价指标的信息,科学合理地综合评价空中交通管理安全风险状况,可根据评价结果采取有效措施防止空中交通管理事故的发生。

To develop effective measures to ensure the safety operation of air traffic management, it is necessary to evaluate the security risks of air traffic management scientifically. In view of many grey factors affecting the safety of the air traffic management, the grey theory is used to evaluate the safety risk of the air traffic management. An indicator system of the safety risk evaluation of the air traffic management is built on the basis of the four kinds of factors, including human factors, equipment factors, environment factors and management factors. The weights of evaluation indexes are determined by means of the analytical hierarchy process(AHP). A model of safety risk assessment of the air traffic management based on the grey hierarchy theory is proposed. The expert score evaluation is used to evaluate the index layer of the security of the air traffic management. With this method,, the evaluation sample matrix of the index can be obtained. Then the grey evaluation weight matrix of each indicator in every index layer can be obtained. The safety risks of the air traffic management in a grey hierarchy theory can then be evaluated. The results of examples show that the model is effective, an overall security risk level of the air traffic management can be obtained with this method and an integrated evaluation method to evaluate the safety risks of the air traffic management can thus be developed. The result of the comprehensive evaluation provides a scientific basis for the air traffic management to work out security risk measures and preventive measures.