朴世龙教授等在2010年9月2日出版的英国Nature杂志上发表的题为“The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China”的一篇综述里采用不适当的方法处理数据,偏向评估暖化对水资源和粮食生产这一复杂的科学问题,得出的结论与中国的实际情况相差甚远。为了有助于国家的正确决策,有必要研讨全球暖化研究的方法论问题。本文旨在初步澄清关于暖化对中国的水资源和粮食生产影响的一些关键事实和相关的研究方法问题。

The paper "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China" (Nature 43, 43-51, 2010) fails to follow scientific methods by selecting one-sided data sets and research results to support their argument that the warming has a significant negative impact on water resources and agriculture. This one-sided paper is not only a disservice to the academic community, but also has generated unnecessary panic responses from public that China will not be able to feed its people since warmer temperatures in China will reduce crop yields significantly. The purpose of this paper is to clarify some of the basic facts about the true impacts of the warming on water resources and agriculture in China and discuss some relevant methodological issues.