以探讨和确定中国地质灾害生命可接受风险标准为目的。在分析地质灾害可接受风险标准内涵及地质灾害风险估计方法的基础上,运用统计分析的方法对中国陕西、四川等12个地质灾害高发省(市)及10多年来全国地质灾害造成的人口伤亡数据进行分析,得出中国自然地质灾害个人风险可接受水平的上限为10^-6/a,可容忍水平的上限为10^-4/a；新建工程边坡诱发灾害个人风险可接受水平的上限为10^-7/a,可容忍水平的上限为10^-5/a的结论,并在此基础上提出了可供参考的地质灾害社会风险评价标准。研究成果对中国地质灾害可接受风险标准的制定及地质灾害风险管理实施具有较大的理论和实际意义。

The acceptable risk criteria are an important part in connection with geo-hazards risk assessment and management; china's geo-hazards criteria are in the early stages of research. For the targets of the life risk acceptability criteria definition of geo-hazards occurred china, firstly the connotation of criterion is analyzed, and then the Individual Risk (IR) criteria and the Social Risk (SR) criteria are achieved through a consequence based approach. The IR criteria are discussed and defined by using statistical and comparative analysis method based on the casualty data of geo-hazards occurred in recent years in the entire country of china and other twelve Chinese provinces frequently-occurring geo-hazards. The research results of IR are summarized as follows: For the natural geo-hazards, the upper limit of the acceptable individual risk is 10^-6 per annum and the maximum tolerance for the individual risk is 10^-4 per annum; for the geo-hazard IR caused by new built-up slopes, the upper limit of the acceptable individual risk is 10^-7 per annum and the maximum tolerance for the individual risk is 10^-5 per annum. The SR criteria are recommended based on the IR criteria and the international experiences composed by acceptable, unacceptable, ALARP, and intense scrutiny regions. It is suggested that all of the research conclusions are only for the discussion. The result has both theoretical and practical significance to the formulation of risk acceptability criteria and the risk management implementation for geo-hazards in china.