针对见水后产量递减规律缺乏理论研究以及产量递减预测方法有待完善等问题,本文以渗流理论为基础,从相对渗透率曲线和物质平衡原理出发,推导出产量递减新模型。研究表明,见水后产量递减规律反映的内在规律是随着开发的进行,含油饱和度逐渐降低(物质平衡规律的体现),导致油相相对渗透能力减弱以及水相渗流能力增加(相对渗透率规律的体现);相对渗透率曲线表达式决定递减规律,且提出的产量递减新模型通过忽略水油黏度比与水相渗透率的比值项可以得出常规的3种产量递减模型。新模型是考虑因素更全面、理论推导更严格统一的产量递减模型。利用A油田实际生产资料对新模式进行验证,与常规递减模型相比新模型预测精度最高。本文对产量递减规律的深层次认识以及提高产量递减预测精度具有一定的参考意义。

Currently, the oil production decline after water breakthrough is lack of theoretical research, and the production decline forecasting methods need to be improved. Based on the percolation theory of relative permeability curve and material balance equation, the new model for oil production decline is derived. The research shows that with the oil saturation is getting lower and lower, the relative permeability of oil phase is getting weaker and weaker, and the relative permeability of water phase is getting stronger and stronger. The production decline law is determined by the relative permeability curve expression; three common production decline models could be derived by ignoring the ratio of oil water viscosity ratio to the relative permeability of water phase from the new model. The new model is a more uniform production decline equation, giving consideration to several factors. The research has a certain reference value for deeply understanding the production decline and for increasing forecast accuracy.