从技术角度,以Incopat专利数据库为数据源,利用S曲线法确定技术生命周期,并利用AToT构建主题动态演化模型,研究中国养老科技领域的发展现状;从市场角度,采用文本挖掘对知乎数据进行热点话题识别,确定养老科技领域的发展趋势;从技术-市场角度相结合,分析其发展中存在的问题,并提出对策建议。中国养老科技领域正处于技术发展的成长期;技术研发主要集中在移动设备类、行动辅助类、居家类和护理类;从技术-市场视角下,发现居家类技术研发投入相对较少,但用户关注度较高,未来企业应该特别关注居家类技术,在此技术领域进行技术布局。
The exploration of the technology for the old age care from the perspective of the technology and the market can provide a theoretical support for the effective layout of the technology in the future and rely on technological innovation to deal with the aging problem. First of all, from the perspective of the technology, using Incopat patent database as the data source, using the S-curve method to determine the technology life cycle, and on this basis, using Atot to build a dynamic evolution model of the theme, to study the development status of China's old age care technology; secondly, from the perspective of the market, using the text mining to identify hot topics of the knowledge data, to determine the development trend of old age care technology; finally, from the perspective of the technology and the market, this paper analyzes the existing problems in its development, and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions. China's old age care technology is in the growth period of the technology development; the technology and the development are mainly focused on the mobile devices, the action assistance, the home and the nursing; from the perspective of the technology and the market, it is found that the investment in the home technology and development is relatively small, but the demand is high, and the future enterprises should pay special attention to the home technology, and make a proper technology layout.
[1] 黄鲁成, 刘春文, 苗红, 等. 开展依靠科技创新应对人口老龄化研究的思考[J]. 中国软科学, 2019(5):1-10.
[2] 黄鲁成, 李晋, 苗红, 等. 基于老年人科技产品需求的研发[J]. 技术经济, 2019, 38(1):19-27.
[3] 田新朝. 以养老服务智能化积极应对人口老龄化[N]. 中国人口报, 2018-01-01(003).
[4] Petermans J, Piau A. Gerontechnology:Don't miss the train, but which is the right carriage[J]. European Geriatric Medicine, 2017, 8(4):5-6.
[5] 马俊达, 刘冠男, 沈晓军. 社会福利视野下中国老年福祉科技及其发展路径探析[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2014(5):130-136.
[6] 黄鲁成, 常兰兰. 基于专利的技术景观四侧面分析框架——以老年福祉技术为例[J]. 科技管理研究, 2016, 36(21):34-40.
[7] Peine A, Rollwagen I, Neven L. The rise of the innosumer-Rethinking older technology users[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014(82):199-214.
[8] 黄鲁成, 张二涛, 苗红. 老人福祉科技需求实证研究[J]. 科技管理研究, 2016, 36(13):102-105.
[9] 李昊. 基于Incopat数据库的合肥工业大学专利分析[J]. 内蒙古科技与经济, 2019(7):143-146.
[10] 刘素娜. 知乎的经营与管理模式分析[J]. 智库时代, 2019(13):278-279.
[11] 知乎:截至9月份, 知乎个人注册用户总数超过了1亿[EB/OL].[2018-12-24]. http://www.sohu.com/a/193351816_812860.
[12] 曹雨骋, 李浩鸣. 科普网站的社交功能对科技传播的影响研究——以知乎网为例[J]. 出版广角, 2015(6):79-81.
[13] Ford D, Ryan C. Taking technology to market[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1981(59):117-126.
[14] Little A D. The strategic management of technology[J]. European Management Forum, 1981(1):1.
[15] Foster R N. Innovation:The attacker's advantage[M]. New York:Summit Books, 1986.
[16] 李春燕, 黄斌. 利用S曲线法判断3D打印工艺技术生命周期[J]. 科技与经济, 2017(2):91-95.
[17] 黄裕荣, 侯元元, 刘彤, 等. 专利信息视域下纯电动汽车技术研发竞争态势研究[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2017, 34(4):72-77.
[18] 张海锋, 张卓. 技术生命周期阶段特征指标构建及判定[J]. 技术经济, 2018, 37(2):108-112.
[19] Xu S, Shi Q W, Qiao X D, et al. Author-topic over time (AToT):A dynamic users' interest model[J]. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 2014(274):58-61.
[20] 张晗, 徐硕, 乔晓东. 融合科技文献内外部特征的主题模型发展综述[J]. 情报学报, 2014(10):1108-1120.