科技工作者建议

大国博弈背景下美国关键矿产供应链安全态势及其启示

  • 王钊 ,
  • 李莹 ,
  • 刘萍萍
展开
  • 1. 军事科学院战略评估咨询中心, 北京 100097;
    2. 昆仑数智科技有限责任公司, 北京 102200;
    3. 全国市长研修学院(住房和城乡建设部干部学院), 北京 100029
王钊,助理研究员,研究方向为关键矿产战略,电子信箱:wz0531024@163.com;刘萍萍(通信作者),副研究员,研究方向为科技战略,电子信箱:5644564@qq.com

收稿日期: 2024-01-15

  修回日期: 2024-02-14

  网络出版日期: 2024-09-24

基金资助

国家社会科学基金军事学项目(青年)(2023-SKJJ-C-050)

Security posture of critical mineral supply chain in the U. S. under the background of the superpower games and the inspiration for China

  • WANG Zhao ,
  • LI Ying ,
  • LIU Pingping
Expand
  • 1. Strategic Assessments and Consultation Institute, Academy of Military Sciences, Beijing 100097, China;
    2. Kunlun Digital Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 102200, China;
    3. National Academy for Mayors of China (originally National Training Center for Mayors of China), Beijing 100029, China

Received date: 2024-01-15

  Revised date: 2024-02-14

  Online published: 2024-09-24

摘要

基于美国地质调查局公布的2013—2022年关键矿产相关数据,从进口依赖度、市场动态、供应风险3个角度开展定量研究,阐明美国关键矿产供应链安全的变化态势,剖析美国加强关键矿产供应链安全的手段与特点。美国约90%的关键矿产依赖进口,中国是美国的顶级供应方;约70%关键矿产的市场动态值波动剧烈,市场不稳可能放大美国关键矿产的进口风险;约32%的关键矿产供应风险值偏高或上升,且随着关键矿产的产能进一步向亚洲、非洲、南美洲的部分国家转移,地缘政治危机升级可能会加剧矿产供应风险。借鉴美国关键矿产供应链安全态势和强化供应链安全手段,提出了谋划应对关键矿产战略博弈、增强对国际矿产资源市场影响力、深化海外开发合作、加强风险防控等建议。

本文引用格式

王钊 , 李莹 , 刘萍萍 . 大国博弈背景下美国关键矿产供应链安全态势及其启示[J]. 科技导报, 2024 , 42(24) : 21 -29 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.01.00093

Abstract

Under the background of the superpower games, the United States actively promotes the de Sinicization of key minerals and constructs a strategic blockade against China, which may seriously affect China's normal resource rights and interests. Based on the critical mineral related data released by the United States Geological Survey from 2013 to 2022, quantitative research was conducted from three perspectives: import dependence, market dynamics, and supply risk. The changes in the security of the critical mineral supply chain in the United States were elucidated, and the means and characteristics of strengthening the security of the critical mineral supply chain in the United States were analyzed. About 90% of critical minerals in the United States rely on imports, with China as its top supplier. The market dynamics of about 70% of critical minerals fluctuate violently, and market instability may amplify the import risk of critical minerals in the United States; About 32% of critical mineral supply risks are high or keep rising, and the production capacity of critical minerals further shifts to some thirdworld countries in Asia, Africa and South America, and the escalation of geopolitical crises may exacerbate mineral supply risks. Based on the analysis of the security situation of the key mineral supply chain in the United States and its security measures to strengthen supply chain, suggestions have been put forward, including systematic planning to respond to the strategic game of key minerals, enhance the influence on the international mineral resource market, deepen overseas development cooperation, and strengthen risk prevention and control.

参考文献

[1] 王安建, 袁小晶. 大国竞争背景下的中国战略性关键矿产资源安全思考[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2022, 37(11): 1550-1559.
[2] U. S. Department of Commerce. A federal strategy to ensure secure and reliable supplies of critical minerals[Z]. Washington DC: Commerce Department, 2017.
[3] The White House. Executive order on America's supply chains[Z]. Washington DC: The White House, 2021.
[4] The White House. The Atlantic Declaration: A Framework for a Twenty-First Century U.S.-UK Economic Partnership[Z]. Washington DC: The White House, 2022.
[5] The White House. Executive order on ensuring robust consideration of evolving national security risks by the committee on foreign investment in the United States[Z]. Washington DC: The White House, 2022.
[6] Department of Defence. Securing defense-critical supply chains[R]. Virginia: DOD, 2022.
[7] 李宪海, 王丹, 吴尚昆. 我国战略性矿产资源评价指标选择: 基于美国、欧盟等关键矿产名录的思考[J]. 中国矿业, 2014, 23(4): 30-33.
[8] 王登红. 关键矿产的研究意义、矿种厘定、资源属性、找矿进展、存在问题及主攻方向[J]. 地质学报, 2019, 93(6): 1189-1209.
[9] 翟明国, 吴福元, 胡瑞忠, 等. 战略性关键金属矿产资源: 现状与问题[J]. 中国科学基金, 2019, 33(2): 106- 111.
[10] 唐金荣, 杨宗喜, 周平, 等. 国外关键矿产战略研究进展及其启示[J]. 地质通报, 2014, 33(9): 1445-1453.
[11] 葛建平, 刘佳琦. 关键矿产战略国际比较: 历史演进与工具选择[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(8): 1464-1476.
[12] 于宏源, 关成龙, 马哲. 拜登政府的关键矿产战略[J]. 现代国际关系, 2021(11): 1-8.
[13] 赵燊, 汪鹏, 王路, 等. 美国关键矿产战略的演化特征及启示[J]. 科技导报, 2022, 40(8): 91-103.
[14] 李建武, 马哲, 李鹏远. 美欧关键矿产战略及其对我国的启示[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2022, 37(11): 1560-1565.
[15] 霍文敏, 陈甲斌, 聂宾汗. 美国关键性矿产战略与政策演进研究: 对我国矿产资源保供的启示[J]. 中国国土资源经济, 2023, 36(9): 40-46.
[16] 陈甲斌, 霍文敏, 冯丹丹, 等. 中国与美欧战略性(关键)矿产资源形势分析[J]. 中国国土资源经济, 2020, 33(8): 9-17.
[17] 李婧, 宫庆彬, 唐蘅, 等. 美国关键矿产供应链安全风险防控及启示[J]. 情报杂志, 2022, 41(6): 58-65.
[18] 韩爽, 田伊霖, 张博. 2022年度美国供应链安全政策分析、影响与应对[J]. 情报杂志, 2023, 42(11): 41-47.
[19] Vivoda V. Friend-shoring and critical minerals: Exploring the role of the Minerals Security Partnership[J]. Energy Research & Social Science, 2023, 100: 103085.
[20] U.S. Geological Survey. Methodology and technical input for the 2021 review and revision of the U.S. critical minerals list[R]. Virginia: USGS, 2021.
[21] 李建武, 李天骄, 贾宏翔, 等. 中国战略性关键矿产目录厘定[J]. 地球学报, 2023, 44(2): 261-270.
[22] Nassar N, Xun S, Fortier S, et al. Assessment of critical minerals: Screening methodology and initial application [R]. Washington, DC: Subcommittee on Critical and Strategic Mineral supply Chains of the Committee on Environment, 2016.
[23] 王永中. 资源国关键矿产博弈的新动向及可能影响[J]. 人民论坛, 2022(15): 90-95.
[24] The World Bank. World Bank Open Data[EB/OL]. (2023-10-19)[2024-02-10]. http://data.worldbank.org.
[25] U. S. Geological Survey. Mineral commodity summaries 2022[R]. Virginia: U.S. Department of the Interior, 2022.
[26] U. S. Geological Survey. Mineral commodity summaries 2024[R]. Virginia: U.S. Department of the Interior, 2024.
文章导航

/