支撑我国“风光”大规模发展的关键金属稀缺性评估与循环策略模拟

任凯鹏; 唐旭

doi:10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.03.01189

科技导报 >

2024 , Vol. 42 >Issue 17: 111 - 124

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.03.01189

论文

支撑我国“风光”大规模发展的关键金属稀缺性评估与循环策略模拟

任凯鹏 ,
唐旭

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1. 中国石油大学(北京)理学院, 北京 102249;
2. 中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院, 北京 102249;
3. 中国石油大学(北京)石油工程学院, 北京 102249;
4. 中国石油大学(北京)理学院, 能源交叉学科基础研究中心, 北京 102249

任凯鹏，博士后，研究方向为能源系统建模、资源环境政策与管理、能源经济管理，电子信箱:kaipeng_ren@cup.edu.cn;唐旭(通信作者)，教授，研究方向为能源经济管理、资源环境政策与管理、管理系统工程，电子信箱:tangxu@cup.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2024-04-09

修回日期: 2024-06-27

网络出版日期: 2024-09-29

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目（72174206，72404277）；中国石油大学（北京）科研基金项目（2462023YQTD002，2462023SZBH001）；中国博士后科学基金面上项目（2023M743871）；国家资助博士后研究人员计划项目（GZB20230865）

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Identification of critical metals and simulation of circular strategies under China's large-scale development in wind-power and solar-power sectors

REN Kaipeng ,
TANG Xu

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1. College of Science, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China;
2. College of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China;
3. College of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China;
4. Basic Research center for Energy Interdisciplinary, College of Science, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China

Received date: 2024-04-09

Revised date: 2024-06-27

Online published: 2024-09-29

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摘要

为评估支撑我国“风光”大规模发展的金属稀缺程度，构建了金属稀缺度评估模型，并对大规模“风光”发展所需的12种金属开展评估，运用金属末端循环回收模型对稀缺性强的关键金属开展金属循环回收模拟。结果显示：从金属稀缺角度看，支撑“风光”大规模发展所需的6种关键金属为铜、镍、镝、碲、锌、银，且碲、铜、镍的重要性更高；“风光”大规模发展路径的不确定性影响金属供需平衡和稀缺性，“风电主导”型路径较“光伏主导”型路径将引发更大的金属累积供应压力；金属循环再生策略将在中长期发挥作用，且对镝和银的效果更显著，金属回收率绝对值提高20%~30%，将使得金属矿产累积供应压力缓解5%~16%。研究表明，我国现有金属矿产供应能力难以支撑大规模“风光”发展的设施建设需求，金属循环回收策略对缓解金属稀缺具有一定的作用，但仅凭单一策略难以系统解决金属矿产供应制约问题。建议针对金属稀缺性与供应安全挑战构建应对策略组合时，应综合考虑金属矿产差异性、能源发展路径不确定性和金属供应规律演变3方面影响。

关键词： “风光”; 关键金属; 循环再生; 能源发展路径

本文引用格式

任凯鹏 , 唐旭 . 支撑我国“风光”大规模发展的关键金属稀缺性评估与循环策略模拟[J]. 科技导报, 2024 , 42(17) : 111 -124 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.03.01189

Abstract

Systematically assessing the scarcity of metals required by large-scale development in wind-power and solar power sectors and conducting recycling simulation are the basis of tackling the metal constraint challenge. We argue that 6 types of metal minerals (copper, nickel, dysprosium, tellurium, zinc, silver) have greater supply pressures during the wind-power and solar photovoltaics development while tellurium, copper and nickel have relatively higher criticality. The uncertainties of windpower and solar photovoltaics development have impacts on the supply pressure of metal minerals. "Wind-dominate" pathways generally have a greater metal mineral supply pressure than "solar photovoltaics dominate" pathways. The metal recycling and reuse strategies will play an important role in the mid to long-term future. The coping strategies have greater impacts on dysprosium and silver than other metals. The 20%~30% increasement of metal recycling rate will lead to 5%~16% decline of cumulative metal pressure. We also show that the current metal availability of China cannot fully meet the metal mineral demand during China's large-scale development in wind-power and solar-power, nor can the adptation of single strategies. We suggest that policy makers should consider the heterogeneity of different metal minerals, the uncertainty of energy development pathways, and the characteristics of metal supply when constructing the integrated coping strategies portfolio in the future.

Key words： wind-power and solar power; critical metals; recycling and reuse; energy development pathways

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