“双碳”目标下气候变化风险的预估:从全球到区域

程方圆; 左志燕; 乔梁; 张楷文; 常美玉

doi:10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00239

科技导报 >

2024 , Vol. 42 >Issue 19: 20 - 33

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00239

专题：气候变化与绿色能源低碳发展

“双碳”目标下气候变化风险的预估:从全球到区域

程方圆 ,
左志燕 ,
乔梁 ,
张楷文 ,
常美玉

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1. 复旦大学大气与海洋科学系, 大气科学研究院, 上海 200438;
2. 上海市海洋-大气相互作用前沿科学研究基地, 上海 200438;
3. 上海长江河口湿地生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站, 上海 202183

程方圆,硕士研究生,研究方向为区域气温变率和气候风险刻画,电子信箱:22213020003@m.fudan.edu.cn;左志燕(通信作者),教授,研究方向为陆-气相互作用、气候变化、亚洲季风、东亚气候变异机理、极端天气气候事件,电子信箱:zuozhy@fudan.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2024-01-03

修回日期: 2024-05-26

网络出版日期: 2024-11-02

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42175053,41822503);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0801703)

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Projection of climate change risk under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals: From global level to regional level

CHENG Fangyuan ,
ZUO Zhiyan ,
QIAO Liang ,
ZHANG Kaiwen ,
CHANG Meiyu

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1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China;
2. Shanghai Frontiers Science Center of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction, Shanghai 200438, China;
3. National Observations and Research Station for Wetland Ecosystems of the Yangtze Estuary, Shanghai 202183, China

Received date: 2024-01-03

Revised date: 2024-05-26

Online published: 2024-11-02

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摘要

借助国际耦合模式比较计划第6阶段（CMIP6）模式模拟结果，基于信噪比（SNR）方法系统评估了“双碳”目标下和更高排放情景下气候变化风险的差异。根据不同的SNR阈值，将气候变化风险量化为“不寻常”（SNR≥1）、“不熟悉”（SNR≥2）和“不可知”（SNR≥3）3种程度。从全球角度来说，在近期未来，各排放情景下CO₂排放差异较小，因此“双碳”目标下将与更高排放情景几乎同时面临“不寻常”程度的气候变化风险；而在由CO₂排放主导气温变化的中期和远期未来，“双碳”政策将使“不熟悉”或“不可知”程度的气候变化风险比更高排放情景晚数十年到来甚至不会到来，并且使暴露在“不熟悉”或“不可知”程度的气候变化风险下的地表面积比例相较更高排放情景降低30%~60%。区域上，“双碳”目标下，由于近期未来与更高排放情景下气溶胶（AA）排放区域差异显著，不同区域面临“不寻常”程度的气温变化风险的时间与更高排放情景差异较大。因此，结合区域发展特点制定更为合理的CO₂和AA协同减排政策对于应对气候变化风险意义重大。

关键词： “双碳”目标; 气候变化风险; 全球变暖; 信噪比; 信号显现时间

本文引用格式

程方圆 , 左志燕 , 乔梁 , 张楷文 , 常美玉 . “双碳”目标下气候变化风险的预估:从全球到区域[J]. 科技导报, 2024 , 42(19) : 20 -33 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00239

Abstract

To mitigate the negative impacts of global warming, international community has issued policies to accomplish carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality by 2030s and mid-21st century, respectively. Using projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, this study compares differences of future climate change risks between under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and under higher scenarios based on the signal-to-noise (SNR) method. By the level of climate change risks, the respective climate conditions can be sorted as "unusual" (SNR≥1), "unfamiliar" (SNR≥2) and "unknown" (SNR≥ 3). Under the low emission scenario, in the near-term future most regions of the earth will face "unusual" climate conditions, nearly simultaneously comparable with higher scenarios due to minor differences in CO₂ emissions between different scenarios, except in some regions where reductions of aerosol emissions will dominate on the local surface air temperature (SAT) change. However, in the mid-term and long-term future, for the fast decrease in CO₂ emission under carbon emission peaking and neutrality goals, almost all the globe will be exposed to an "unfamiliar" or "unusual" climate condition several decades later even beyond 2100 than under higher scenarios. In addition, mitigation will make the percentage of surface area exposed to higher climate change risks 30~60% lower than those under higher emission scenarios. Therefore, decision-makers should attach more importance to the climate penalty induced by decreased aerosols and take regional characteristics of climate change into consideration for developing more effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Key words： carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals; climate change risk; global warming; signal-to-noise ratio (SNR); time of emergence (ToE)

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