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| Dynamic model of COVID-19 transmission and assessment of control interventions based on causal analysis |
| YOU Guangrong1, YOU Hanlin1, ZHAO Dezhi2, LIAN Zhenyu1 |
1. Center for Assessment and Demonstration Research, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China;
2. School of Graduate, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China |
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Abstract: A modified SEIR model of single-population infectious disease (SEIRD) is proposed to investigate the transmission trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Chinese Mainland, whose outbreak originated in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The SEIRD model preforms well in fitting training data and can be used to predict the future transmission trend. The counterfactual inference is applied to assess the control interventions based on SEIRD model. Using the quantitative analysis results, the effect on COVID-19 transmission can be assessed systematically under the adjustable control interventions, such as delaying the Wuhan Lockdown. Finally, the conclusions are summarized:the assessment approach combining modeling & simulation and causal inference is applicable in the bidirectional deduction study of decision-making and implementation in major public health emergencies (MPHE), which contributes to improve the social governance capabilities handling with MPHE of the governments in each level.
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Received: 18 March 2020
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2020, Vol. 38 
