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| Spatial-temporal patterns of population exposed to the extreme maximum temperature events in the Belt and Road regions |
| LÜ Yanran1, JIANG Tong1,3, TAO Hui3, ZHAI Jianqing2, WANG Yanjun1 |
1. Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China |
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Abstract: This paper investigates the extreme maximum temperature event characterization and the population exposure in the Belt and Road regions by using the maximum temperature form ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and the gridded population dataset in the period from 1979 to 2018. The extreme maximum temperature threshold is determined based on the 95% quartile of the daily maximum temperature. The improved Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD) method is used to determine the extreme maximum temperature event characteristics and the quantitative assessment of the population exposure to these extreme events. It is shown that, in the Belt and Road area, the frequency, the intensity and the duration of the summer extreme maximum temperature events are increased in the 1979-2018 period. The significant increase area is distributed in eastern China, western Russia and Central Eastern Europe. In summer, the extreme maximum temperature events mostly occur in Kazakhstan, Xinjiang, and central Russia, generally, in the northern part of the study area. The intensity high value area is mainly distributed in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, India and other places in the southwest region whereas the duration high value area is concentrated in India mainly. During the study period, the yearly cumulative impact area and the population exposure to extreme temperature events show an upward trend, reaching the highest value in the past 10 years. Areas with the high population exposure are mainly distributed in eastern China, Indian continent and countries around the Black Sea and the areas with high population exposure are expanding. Among the influencing factors of the population exposure, the climate factor, the population factor, the interaction of the climate and population factors have a similar contribution rate, but the contribution rate of the climatic factors has increased significantly in the past 10 years. It is suggested to strengthen the research of monitoring, warning and forecast of the extreme maximum temperature events.
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Received: 28 April 2020
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2020, Vol. 38 
