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Application of Gray Logistic I/II Models in Subsidence Prediction in Mine Exploitation |
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Abstract: After the exploitation of underground coal resources, the cracking, subsidence, deformation and other geological disasters may occur in the surface because of the instability of overlying strata, the collapse and the re-compacting. The traditional methods to deal with coal mine subsidence include geological methods, field monitoring, physical and numerical simulations and others, but they are often costly and time consuming, and some parameters are very difficult to identify. In order to obtain accurate information about the ground subsidence in coal mining, the mining-induced stress-relief principle and the "three-zone" model are applied in this paper, and the coal mining subsidence in Tuzhu Coal Mine of Jinzhushan Mining Company is studied. The occurrence mechanism and characteristics of surface cracks and settlement in underground coal mining are analyzed. It is suggested that: (1) when exploiting the shallow coal seams with a large estimate of vertical cracks which would directly affect the surface, one should make settlement prediction on the basis of theoretical analysis and field observation methods, to obtain timely effective security warning information; (2) when exploiting the deep coal seams with a large estimate of vertical cracks which do not affect the surface, one should, on the basis of the actual observation data, establish gray Logistic I/II models to predict the land subsidence, and without the need to carry out the practical monitoring. Practical verification and model accuracy test show that the Grey Logistic I/II models can make accurate predictions, with a good agreement between the predictive value and actual value. It can provide effective and accurate information, and also can provide an important reference for the reclamation planning of surface environment.
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Received: 09 November 2009
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Corresponding Authors:
Luo wen-ke SHI Shi-liang LIU Ying
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