Exclusive: Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction

Multi-factor prediction of spring dust weather frequency in northern China

  • YANG Mingzhu ,
  • ZHU Xiaying ,
  • AI Wanxiu ,
  • SONG Wenling
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  • National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Received date: 2018-11-11

  Revised date: 2019-01-18

  Online published: 2019-11-06

Abstract

The evolution characteristics of the spring sand-dust weather frequency (SDWF) in northern China and its associated atmospheric circulations are analyzed. The signals for the prediction of the SDWF are explored by using the sea surface temperature and the sea ice concentration in the previous autumn as the external forcing factors. Besides, the influence of the rainfall over the dust-storm source regions in the previous summer is also studied. A multi-factor prediction model for the SDWF in northern China is established and applied in the operational forecasting in the National Climate Center of China. The results show that this model performs best for North China and fairly well for Northwest China by involving the precipitation in the previous autumn.

Cite this article

YANG Mingzhu , ZHU Xiaying , AI Wanxiu , SONG Wenling . Multi-factor prediction of spring dust weather frequency in northern China[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2019 , 37(20) : 19 -29 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.003

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