Lithium is widely regarded as a critical and strategic metal that plays an indispensable role in electric vehicles and energy storage technology. This study first provides a dynamic and holistic view on the historical evolution of the global reserve, production, and consumption of lithium. Material flow analysis (MFA) is then used to model the trends of supply, demand, scrap generation, and in-use stocks of lithium from 2020 to 2080. Finally, prospects, challenges, and policy recommendations for urban mining of lithium are discussed. It is shown that, driven by the increasing demand in batteries, the global lithium demand, scraps generation, and in-use stocks will keep fast growing over the next 60 years, and will reach≈1.50, ≈1.15, and ≈18.40 million tons, respectively by 2080. If no new recoverable reserves are found and if lithium recycling rate reaches 100%, then lithium natural reserves would be exhausted in 2080, shifting the future lithium supply from natural minerals to urban minerals. Hence, it is important and urgent to explore the urban mines of lithium, which will have positive influences on trade, resource, energy, and environment. However, there are still many bottlenecks in terms of recycling technologies, economic feasibility, and waste management system to be solved so as to ensure highly efficient and environmental utilization of urban mining of lithium. Several policy recommendations are thus provided.
WANG Qiaochu
,
SUN Xin
,
HAO Han
,
CHEN Wei
,
CHEN Weiqiang
,
ZHENG Mianping
. Urban mining of lithium: Prospects, challenges and policy recommendations[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2020
, 38(15)
: 6
-15
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.15.001
[1] 尚玺, 孟宇航, 张乾, 等. 富锂矿物的锂提取与战略性应用[J]. 矿产保护与利用, 2019, 39(6):152-158.
[2] 郑绵平, 刘喜方. 中国的锂资源[J]. 新材料产业, 2007(8):13-16.
[3] Watari T, McLellan B C, Giurco D, et al. Total material requirement for the global energy transition to 2050:A focus on transport and electricity[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2019, 148:91-103.
[4] 王登红. 战略性关键矿产相关问题探讨[J]. 化工矿产地质, 2019, 41(2):65-72.
[5] 李建康, 刘喜方, 王登红. 中国锂矿成矿规律概要[J]. 地质学报, 2014, 88(12):2269-2283.
[6] 周平, 唐金荣, 张涛. 全球锂资源供需前景与对策建议[J]. 地质通报, 2014, 33(10):1532-1538.
[7] 刘丽君, 闫卫东, 王登红, 等. 国内外锂矿主要类型、分布特点及勘查开发现状[J]. 中国地质, 2017, 44(2):263-278.
[8] Ziemann S, Müller D B, Schebek L, et al. Modeling the potential impact of lithium recycling from EV batteries on lithium demand:A dynamic MFA approach[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2018, 133:76-85.
[9] Hao H, Geng Y, Tate J E, et al. Impact of transport electrification on critical metal sustainability with a focus on the heavy-duty segment[J]. Nature Communications, 2019, 10:5398.
[10] International Energy Agency. Global EV Outlook 2019[R]. Paris:International Energy Agency, 2019.
[11] Zheng J, Zhou Y, Yu R, et al. Survival rate of China passenger vehicles:A data-driven approach[J]. Energy Policy, 2019, 129:587-597.
[12] Aral H, Vecchio-Sadus A. Toxicity of lithium to humans and the environment-A literature review[J]. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety, 2008, 70(3):349-356.
[13] Friends of the Earth Europe. Lithium[R]. Brussels:Friends of the Earth Europe, 2013.
[14] Dunn J B, Gaines L, Sullivan J, et al. Impact of recycling on cradle-to-gate energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of automotive lithium-ion batteries[J]. Environmental Science and Technology, 2012, 46(22):12704-12710.
[15] Ioakimidis C S, Murillo-Marrodán A, Bagheri A, et al. Life cycle assessment of a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) electric vehicle battery in second life application scenarios[J]. Sustainability, 2019, 11:2527.
[16] Franco A A. Rechargeable Lithium Batteries (Chapter 11:Environmental performance of lithium batteries:Life cycle analysis)[M]. Amsterdam:Elsevier, 2015.
[17] International Resource Panel. Recycling rates of metals:A status report[R]. Nairobi:United Nations Environment Programme, 2011.
[18] Melin H E. State-of-the-art in reuse and recycling of lithium-ion batteries-A research review[R]. London:Circular Energy Storage, 2019.
[19] Melin H E. The lithium-ion battery end-of-life market 2018-2025[R]. London:Circular Energy Storage, 2018.
[20] Melin H E. The lithium-ion battery end-of-life market -A baseline study[R]. London:Circular Energy Storage, 2018.
[21] Swain B. Recovery and recycling of lithium:A review[J]. Separation and Purification Technology, 2017, 172:388-403.
[22] Ambrose H, Kendall A. Understanding the future of lithium:Part 2, temporally and spatially resolved life-cycle assessment modeling[J]. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2020, 24(1):90-100.
[23] Church C, Wuennenberg L. Sustainability and second life:The case for cobalt and lithium recycling[R]. Winnipeg:International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2019.
[24] Chagnes A, Światowska J. Global lithium resources and sustainability issues[M]//Lithium process chemistry. Amsterdam:Elsevier, 2015.
[25] Gratz E, Sa Q, Apelian D, et al. A closed loop process for recycling spent lithium ion batteries[J]. Journal of Power Sources, 2014, 262:255-262.
[26] Mayyas A, Steward D, Mann M. The case for recycling:Overview and challenges in the material supply chain for automotive Li-ion batteries[J]. Sustainable Materials and Technologies, 2019, 17:e00087.
[27] Natural Resources Canada. The minerals and metals policy of the government of Canada[EB/OL].[2020-05-20]. https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/mining-materials/policy/8688.
[28] U.S. Department of Energy. Energy department announces battery recycling prize and battery recycling R&D center[EB/OL].[2020-05-20]. https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-announces-battery-recyclingprize-and-battery-recycling-rd-center.
[29] Volkswagen Group. The Group's first pilot plant for battery recycling is being created in Salzgitter[EB/OL].[2020-05-20]. https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2019/02/lithium-to-lithium-manganese-to-manganese.html.
[30] 中华人民共和国工业与信息化部. 新能源汽车废旧动力蓄电池综合利用行业规范条件(2019本)[EB/OL].[2020-05-20]. http://www.miit.gov.cn/n1146295/n16528-58/n1652930/n4509607/c7595282/content.html.
