The coronavirus disease 2019 has spread to a great number of countries and regions around the world, and the spread processes and the infection prediction models of the COVID-19 vary from country to country. Based on the COVID-19 published data from the United States and China, this paper first applies the generalized SEIR model to estimate the disease transmission parameters, then, determines the influence of each parameter in the basic infection number R0 on the disease. Based on the Anylogic simulation, a system dynamics model is used to analyze the parameter sensitivity, and to quantitatively characterize the influence of key parameters on the disease transmission. Finally, according to the analysis results, some targeted prevention and control intervention measures are put forward, with China and the United States as examples to simulate the intervention effects of different prevention and control levels. It is found that the generalized SEIR model fits well with the transmission mechanism of the COVID-19 in China and the United States. The protection rate, the infection rate and the average quarantine time have a significant impact on the prevention and the control of the epidemic. Targeted measures are adopted to improve the protection rate, reduce the infection rate and shorten the average quarantine time.
WANG Jianwei
,
CUI Zhiwei
,
PAN Xiaoxiong
,
DONG Shi
. Simulation of COVID-19 propagation and transmission mechanism and intervention effect based on generalized SEIR model[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2020
, 38(22)
: 130
-138
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.22.015
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