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Exploring dominant transmission routes of COVID-19 in households

  • LEI Hao ,
  • XIAO Shenglan ,
  • ZHANG Nan ,
  • WEI Jianjian ,
  • JIN Tao
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  • 1. School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China;
    2. School of Public Health(Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen 518100, China;
    3. College of Architecture and Civil Engineerin, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China;
    4. College of Energy Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

Received date: 2020-08-05

  Revised date: 2020-12-21

  Online published: 2021-06-08

Abstract

By June 19, 2020, there had been 84940 COVID-19 confirmed cases in China, in which 83% of the clustered infections occurred within families. Thus, exploring the relative contributions of different transmission routes is significant for developing efficient intervention strategies in household. In this study, we build a mathematical model to quantify the relative degrees of importance of airborne, droplet and contact route in COVID-19 transmission in household environments. We find that the droplet and contact routes play the dominant role in COVID-19 transmission in household. Keeping a 1.5-2 m distance when communicating with the infector is the key intervention to control droplet transmission. Hand hygiene and surface cleaning are significant for controlling contact transmission. The infection risk by airborne route is relatively small, however, when the virus concentration in the droplets exhaled by the infector is high (possibly super-spreader), e. g. 107 mRNA copy/mL, the infection risk via the airborne route can be as high as 26%. This study may provide a theoretical guidance for developing targeted interventions in household environments.

Cite this article

LEI Hao , XIAO Shenglan , ZHANG Nan , WEI Jianjian , JIN Tao . Exploring dominant transmission routes of COVID-19 in households[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2021 , 39(9) : 78 -86 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2021.09.009

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