[1] 高德利, 王宴滨. 海洋深水钻井力学与控制技术若干研究进展[J]. 石油学报, 2019, 40(增刊2): 102-115.
[2] 高德利, 朱旺喜, 李军, 等. 深水油气工程科学问题与技术瓶颈——第147期双清论坛学术综述[J]. 中国基础科学, 2016, 18(3): 1-6.
[3] 李中. 中国海油深水钻井技术进展及发展展望[J]. 中国海上油气, 2021, 33(3): 114-120.
[4] 张强, 吕福亮, 贺晓苏, 等. 南海近5年油气勘探进展与启示[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2018, 23(1): 54-61.
[5] 王陆新, 潘继平, 杨丽丽. 全球深水油气勘探开发现状与前景展望[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2020, 39(2): 31-37.
[6] Coates J F. Boom time in forecasting[J]. Technology Forecasting and Social Change, 1999, 62(1/2): 37-40.
[7] Akaike S, Yokoo Y, Ito Y, et al. Close-up science and technology areas for the future[R]. Tokyo: National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, 2019.
[8] 曲钟阳. 基于德尔菲法的技术预见[D]. 大连: 大连理工大学, 2013.
[9] Zweck A, Holtmannspötter D, Braun M, et al. Stories from the future 2030 volume 3 of results from the search phase of BMBF Foresight Cycle II[R]. Germany: Department for Innovation Management and Consultancy, 2017.
[10] Willetts D, Haslett A, Egger D, et al. Technology and innovation futures: UK growth opportunities for the 2020s [R]. The United Kingdom: Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, 2010.
[11] 中国工程科技2035发展战略研究项目组. 中国工程科技 2035发展战略·技术预见报告[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2019.
[12] 穆荣平, 陈勇, 高福, 等. 中国海洋领域2035技术预见[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2020: 93-100.
[13] UK Regulations. Offshore Installations (Safety Case) Regulations[M]. London: HMSO, 1992.
[14] Yager R R, Zadeh L A. An introduction to fuzzy logic applications in intelligent systems[M]. New York: Springer Science & Business Media, 1992: 1-20.
[15] Thomas L S. The analytic hierarchy process: Planning, priority setting, resource allocation[M]. New York: McGraw-Hill International Book Company, 1980.
[16] Ingvarson J, Storm O. Technical safety barrier management in statoilhydro[C]. Aberdeen: Offshore Europe Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, 2009: SPE 124289.
[17] Reason J. Human error: Models and management[J]. Western Journal of Medicine, 2000, 172(6): 393.
[18] Lavasani M, Yang Z, Finlay J, et al. Fuzzy risk assessment of oil and gas offshore wells[J]. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2011, 89(5): 277-294.
[19] Espen J S, Vinnem J E. Quantitative risk analysis of oil and gas drilling, using deepwater horizon as case study [J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2012, 100: 58-66.
[20] Wu S, Zhang L, Zheng W, et al. A DBN-based risk assessment model for prediction and diagnosis of offshore drilling incidents[J]. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 2016, 34: 139-158.
[21] Cheliyan A S, Bhattacharyya S K. Fuzzy fault tree analysis of oil and gas leakage in subsea production systems [J]. Journal of Ocean Engineering and Science, 2018(3): 38-48.
[22] Li X, Yang M, Chen G. An integrated framework for subsea pipelines safety analysis considering causation dependencies[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2019, 183: 175-186.
[23] Wang C, Liu Y, Hou W, et al. Reliability and availability modeling of subsea X-mas tree system using dynamic bayesian network with different maintenance methods[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2020, 64: 104066.
[24] Bhardwaj U, Teixeira A P, Soares C G, et al. Evidence based risk analysis of fire and explosion accident scenarios in FPSOs[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2021, 215: 107904.
[25] 程启月. 评测指标权重确定的结构熵权法[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2010, 30(7): 1225-1228.
[26] 杜向东. 中国海上地震勘探技术新进展[J]. 石油物探, 2018, 57(3): 321-331.
[27] 刘杰鸣, 王世圣, 冯玮, 等. 深水油气开发工程模式及其在我国南海的适应性探讨[J]. 中国海上油气, 2006(6): 413-418.
[28] 高德利. 深海天然气及其水合物开发模式与钻采技术探讨[J]. 天然气工业, 2020, 40(8): 169-176.
[29] 高德利, 黄文君, 李鑫. 大位移井钻井延伸极限研究与工程设计方法[J]. 石油钻探技术, 2019, 47(3): 1-8.
[30] 金晓剑, 陈荣旗, 朱晓环. 南海深水陆坡区油气集输的重大挑战与技术创新-荔湾3-1深水气田及周边气田水下及水上集输工程关键技术[J]. 中国海上油气, 2018, 30(3): 157-163.
[31] 朱海山, 李达, 魏澈, 等. 南海陵水17-2深水气田开发工程方案研究[J]. 中国海上油气, 2018, 30(4): 170- 177.
[32] 王宴滨. 深水导管和隔水管安装过程力学行为研究[D]. 北京: 中国石油大学(北京), 2016.
[33] 孙传轩, 刘文霄, 李磊, 等. 1500 m级国产水下卧式采油树样机码头浅水试验[J]. 石油矿场机械, 2021, 50(3): 36-44.
[34] 韩云峰, 安维峥, 洪毅. 我国水下生产系统测试技术进展[J]. 中国造船, 2021, 62(1): 245-253.
[35] SINTEF Industrial Management. Offshore reliability data handbook[M]. Norsk: Oreda Participants, 2015.
[36] Alessandro B. Reliability engineering[M]. Heidelberger: Springer Nature, 2017: 169-310.
[37] Bijay B, George P, Renjith V R, et al. Application of dynamic risk analysis in offshore drilling processes[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2020, 68: 104326.
[38] 罗小芳, 孙宇, 白旭, 等. 基于动态故障树的半潜式钻井平台钻井系统失效风险分析[J]. 船舶工程, 2019, 41(3): 107-114.
[39] 房军, 王宴滨, 高德利. 应用纵横弯曲梁理论分析隔水管受力变形[J]. 石油矿场机械, 2014, 43(10): 21-24.
[40] 王宴滨, 高德利, 房军. 浮力块对深水钻井隔水管安装过程性能的影响[J]. 石油机械, 2015, 43(7): 47-50.
[41] 王宴滨, 高德利, 房军. 海洋钻井隔水管-钻井液横向耦合振动特性[J]. 石油钻采工艺, 2015, 37(1): 25-29.
[42] 高德利, 王宴滨. 深水钻井管柱力学与设计控制技术研究新进展[J]. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(1): 61-80.
[43] Lundborg M E K. Human technical factors in FPSOShuttle tanker interactions and their influence on the collision risk during operations in the north sea[D]. Trondheim: Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 2014.
[44] Kang J, Geng X, Bai X, et al. Risk assessment of FPSO topside based on generalized stochastic petri net[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2021, 238: 109732.
[45] Christou M, Konstantinidou M. Safety of offshore oil and gas operations: Lessons from past accident analysis[M]. Luxembourg: Institute for Energy and Transport, 2013, 28-41.
[46] Bhardwaj U, Teixeira A P, Soares C G. Bayesian framework for reliability prediction of subsea processing systems accounting for influencing factors uncertainty[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2022, 218: 108143.
