The China-U.S. trade dispute has triggered worries about rare earth trade and the future of rare earth trade between U.S. and China has received public attentions. On the basis of analysis of the rare earth trade status between China and U.S. this paper constructs trade network models for rare earth compound, metal and permanent magnets to identify both direct and indirect trade paths between China and U.S., estimate path stabilities and the lowest transport costs, and analyze the future trend of rare earth trade between China and U. S. The results show that (1) the patterns of rare earth trade between the two countries will develop in different directions, each role of international division of labor will be more characteristic; (2) the limitations on rare earth trade are becoming weak as the paths between the two are enhanced; (3) rare earth import dependencies of China and U.S. will appear more complementary, which may provide an opportunity for both to develop cooperation in rare earth industry and trade. Based on these results, suggestions on strengthening cooperation and boosting industrial upgrading for China’ s rare earth industry and rare earth trade policies are provided.
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