Science & Technology Review >

2024 , Vol. 42 >Issue 17: 111 - 124

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.03.01189

Papers

Identification of critical metals and simulation of circular strategies under China's large-scale development in wind-power and solar-power sectors

  • REN Kaipeng ,
  • TANG Xu
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  • 1. College of Science, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China;
    2. College of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China;
    3. College of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China;
    4. Basic Research center for Energy Interdisciplinary, College of Science, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China

Received date: 2024-04-09

  Revised date: 2024-06-27

  Online published: 2024-09-29

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Abstract

Systematically assessing the scarcity of metals required by large-scale development in wind-power and solar power sectors and conducting recycling simulation are the basis of tackling the metal constraint challenge. We argue that 6 types of metal minerals (copper, nickel, dysprosium, tellurium, zinc, silver) have greater supply pressures during the wind-power and solar photovoltaics development while tellurium, copper and nickel have relatively higher criticality. The uncertainties of windpower and solar photovoltaics development have impacts on the supply pressure of metal minerals. "Wind-dominate" pathways generally have a greater metal mineral supply pressure than "solar photovoltaics dominate" pathways. The metal recycling and reuse strategies will play an important role in the mid to long-term future. The coping strategies have greater impacts on dysprosium and silver than other metals. The 20%~30% increasement of metal recycling rate will lead to 5%~16% decline of cumulative metal pressure. We also show that the current metal availability of China cannot fully meet the metal mineral demand during China's large-scale development in wind-power and solar-power, nor can the adptation of single strategies. We suggest that policy makers should consider the heterogeneity of different metal minerals, the uncertainty of energy development pathways, and the characteristics of metal supply when constructing the integrated coping strategies portfolio in the future.

Key words： wind-power and solar power; critical metals; recycling and reuse; energy development pathways

Cite this article

REN Kaipeng , TANG Xu . Identification of critical metals and simulation of circular strategies under China's large-scale development in wind-power and solar-power sectors[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2024 , 42(17) : 111 -124 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.03.01189

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