This paper predicts the spatiotemporal distribution of photovoltaic (PV) power generation during 2021—2060 under the target of carbon neutrality based on a high-resolution comprehensive digital geographic information. This paper analyses the impacts of temperature, shading and panel inclination on PV power generation, investigates the spatial pattern of PV industry by performing an autocorrelation analysis, and evaluates the integrated benefits of PV power. The main conclusions can be drawn as follows. 1) The maximal annual PV power generation in China is projected to reach 9 PW·h·a-1 by 2060, where Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have the highest potential for PV power generation and are expected to be the most important regions for PV generation in China. 2) The spacing, inclination, shading and temperature of panels have significant impacts on the efficiency of PV power generation. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the actual geological and meteorological factors when making plans of building PV power plants. Improving the performance of PV power generation requires to optimize the layout of PV panels, perform sufficient cleaning, and conduct maintenance work regularly. 3) The spatial correlation in distribution of PV power generation is significant at province level from 2021 to 2060. Northwest China will be the hot-spot area of PV power generation with a potential effect of agglomeration, which could improve the efficiency and competitiveness of PV enterprises, enhance the innovation ability, and drive the coordinated economic growth. 4) Deploying PV power in China can save coal consumption by 1200 Mt·a-1, which is expected to effectively reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, particulate matters, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides by 7076, 0.18, 0.66 and 0.95 Mt·a-1,respectively in 2060. The highest environmental benefits of PV power generation are identified in Northwest China and Inner Mongolia. As a conclusion, accelerating the deployment of PV power and securing construction of electricity transmission and energy storage facilities will speed up China's carbon emissions reduction to achieve the carbon neutrality goal as early as possible. These results provide a scientific basis for the development strategies of PV power in China.
ZENG Jiawei
,
CHEN Zhiye
,
WANG Yijing
,
WANG Rong
. Capacity, spatial patterns and benefits assessment of photovoltaic power under carbon neutrality goal in China[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2024
, 42(19)
: 34
-46
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00233
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