China's climate and extreme climate changes under the global carbon neutrality scenario

CAI Ziyi; YOU Qinglong; WU Fangying; JIANG Zhihong; ZHAI Panmao

doi:10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00236

Science & Technology Review >

2024 , Vol. 42 >Issue 19: 73 - 84

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00236

Exclusive: Climate Change and Low-carbon Development of Green Energy

China's climate and extreme climate changes under the global carbon neutrality scenario

CAI Ziyi ,
YOU Qinglong ,
WU Fangying ,
JIANG Zhihong ,
ZHAI Panmao

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1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate, Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China;
3. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
4. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Received date: 2023-12-15

Revised date: 2024-05-31

Online published: 2024-11-02

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Abstract

This study utilizes the data from 26 CMIP6 models to explore the timeline for global carbon neutrality under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, focusing on the peak CO₂ concentration time. It assesses changes in China's climate and extreme climate during the carbon neutrality period, using 1995—2014 as a reference. Meanwhile, these findings are contrasted with the outcomes from scenarios where carbon neutrality was not achieved. The results indicate that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, global carbon neutrality will be achieved around 2062 (close to China's carbon neutrality target time). The regional average temperature in China during the SSP1-2.6 carbon neutrality period is expected to increase by (1.61±0.46)℃, with a precipitation increase of (9.15±5.46)%. The most significant change areas will be located in northwestern China, with temperature and precipitation increases reaching (1.84±0.50)℃ and (10.05±8.61)%, respectively. The average hottest days and coldest nights in China will increase by (1.78±0.76)℃ and (1.83±0.69)℃, respectively. Warm days will likely increase most significantly on the Tibetan Plateau (17.05±5.16)%, while cool nights decrease most in southern China (-6.08±0.73)%. Extreme precipitation events will intensify, with very wet days near the Tibetan Plateau increasing by more than 20%. Meanwhile, the consecutive dry days will decrease in northern China but increase in the southern regions. Compared to non-carbon neutrality scenarios like SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the achievement of dual carbon goals can help mitigate future extreme climate change in China. It helps control extreme temperature and precipitation increases in northern China and the Tibetan Plateau, and reduce consecutive dry days in southern China. Therefore, to alleviate the exacerbation of regional climate change in China in the future, it is crucial to control CO₂ emissions more rationally to achieve "dual carbon" goals.

Key words： carbon neutrality; climate change; extreme climate change

Cite this article

CAI Ziyi , YOU Qinglong , WU Fangying , JIANG Zhihong , ZHAI Panmao . China's climate and extreme climate changes under the global carbon neutrality scenario[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2024 , 42(19) : 73 -84 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00236

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