Low porosity, low permeability, presence of a starting pressure and development of micro-fractures are the main characteristics of ultra-low permeability reservoirs, and the conventional production decline law and the water drive characteristic curves can not correctly reflect their production features. Based on the seepage theory, combined with production data, a production decline law and water drive characteristic curves in ultra-low permeability reservoirs are obtained. It is shown that in the analysis of the production decline, water cut and water drive characteristic curves, the effect of the starting pressure must be considered. The production decline of an ultra-low permeability reservoir experiences two stages, and using two decline curves to fit the production data can achieve better results. In the analysis of the water drive characteristic curves, recovering the water cut of high water cut wells can reveal the real water cut level of the reservoir, and the ultimate recovery can be predicted more accurately. This paper can provide some guidelines for the tapping potential measures and modification for the ultra-low permeability reservoir.